Page 14 - MEOG Week 04 2023

MEOG NEWS IN BRIEF MEOG

The IEA predicts that there will be a be much more severe, the IEA says. Currently budget revenues may be rescued by the
turning point in the international oil market the agency is forecasting a decline in inflection in demand in the second half of the
in the middle of this year. The latest IEA’s production of 1.6mn bpd in the first quarter year, which could push oil prices up sharply.
Monthly Oil Statistics report including and of 1.3mn bpd to 9.7mn bpd on average BNE
October 2022 data shows that for the main for the whole year compared to 2022, The Bell
areas within the OECD: reports.
- Total OECD production of crude Russian President Vladimir Putin has GAS
oil, NGL and refinery feedstocks increased by already lost the winter energy battle with the
4.3% in October 2022 compared to October West thanks to record imports of LNG and Big freeze hits Central Asia,
2021. an unusually warm winter. Birol believes that
- Refinery gross output of total Russia will also lose the wider energy war with Iran
products grew by 1.9% on a year-on-year the West starting with defeats in the coming
basis. quarters in the expanding oil sanctions war, There were many chilling stories of hardship
- Net deliveries of total products and even more so in the coming years as in sub-zero temperatures from across Central
decreased by 1.5% in October 2022 compared Europe remakes its energy supplies. It will and South Asia this week as the two regions
to October 2021. become increasingly clear that India and were hit simultaneously by a severe cold snap
- Oil stock levels on national territory China will not be able to entirely replace bringing temperatures as low as -30 degrees
grew by 396,000 tonnes in October 2022 Russia’s European customers, the IEA believes. Celsius and a lack of gas and electricity for
compared to the closing stock levels in On the same day the world’s largest oil heating.
September 2022 and closed at 472mn tonnes. company, Saudi Aramco, released its outlook “Energy crisis in Central Asia is so bad that
In the first quarter, the IEA predicted an for 2023. It also hopes for a Chinese recovery families with children are forced to sleep in
excess of oil on the market of about 1mn bpd, and predicts additional demand for jet fuel, the cars because the latter are warmer than the
but in the second that figure will decrease pointing to a shortage of new production of houses. This situation shows again how energy
significantly. By the third and fourth quarter, 4mn-6mn bpd. resources can be captured to serve as a rent
demand will already exceed supply by 1.6mn After the IEA’s forecasts of record demand, for elites, ignoring the needs of populations,”
and 2.4mn bpd respectively, pushing up the price of Brent rose above $87 – the level tweeted Bishkek-based political ethnographer
prices, The Bell reports. of early December – before falling back to Asel Doolotkeldieva on January 19 as the big
Just when the inflection point arrives will $85 by the close of trading. freeze wrought more misery.
depend on two factors: the speed of China’s For Russia the price of Brent is critical for It is too early to assess how many people
economic recovery and the reaction of the budget. The introduction of the crude have lost their lives in the shock winter
Russian production to the EU embargo on embargo has already seen Russian budget temperatures combined with energy outages,
petroleum products. revenues tumble in December to end the but it is known that meteorologists say
The IEA is not optimistic about the year with a 2.3% of GDP deficit, almost all of Tashkent has not experienced such cold in 50
prospects for the Chinese economy, but which was due to a collapse in Urals oil prices years, while in Afghanistan at least 70 people
nevertheless predicts that China will account in December. For 2023, the government is perished.
for almost half of the global growth in oil now forecasting that the deficit will widen bne IntelliNews brings you reports
demand (850,000 bpd) in 2023, and will from around 2% to 3% as a result of the from our Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Iran
outstrip India. changes in oil and gas revenues expected this correspondents on what is known about this
If the recovery turns out to be stronger year. little-expected crisis.
than the forecast, “the cushion of stocks in Currently it’s not unclear how the price of Torbat-e-Jam, an Iranian city historically
storage will disappear very quickly,” said the Urals will be affected by the new sanctions home to Sufi Muslim clerics and once part
head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, in the latter’s after February 5, but it is obvious that Russia of Timurlane’s vast 14th century Timurid
latest oil bulletin. cannot replace Europe with new customers empire based out of what is now Uzbekistan,
Russia remains the “dark horse” in this for all oil products it currently exports there. saw itself sent back to the Middle Ages this
year’s oil outlook, as it is not clear how it will Russia will have to reduce both refining and week with gas and electricity supplies cut. Like
respond to the new sanctions due in February. oil production as a result. Domestic experts many other localities in northern Iran, amid
In December, production decreased slightly consider $40 per barrel as the level that will the freezing weather it found itself no longer
to 11.2mn bpd, but the consequences of the cause severe problems for the budget and served by Iran’s heavily subsidised natural
embargo on petroleum products, which are in December-January, Russian oil already gas system. Stoppages were announced as
much more widely distributed in Europe, will approached this level. However, Russia’s neighbouring Turkmenistan, which provides

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