Page 16 - FSUOGM Week 08 2021
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FSUOGM                                       NEWS IN BRIEF                                          FSUOGM

       Gazprom boosts gas                  burden of the company," Sadygov said.  EASTERN EUROPE
                                              He said that Gazprom's executives like
       exports to Germany by 48%           the market situation but have no plans to   Polish and Ukrainian
                                           raise the investment programme.
       in February                         are happy about it but only a month and   foreign ministers call on
                                              "We set a record almost every day… We
       Russian natural gas major Gazprom   a half passed. We are setting no goal to   Biden to stop completion of
       increased its exports to Germany by 48%   raise any investment program or any other
       year on year in February, Interfax reported,   spending," Sadygov said.  Nord Stream 2
       attributing the jump in exports to cold   Gazprom has no plans to hold a buyback
       weather in the region.              but does not rule doing this in the future,   The administration of US President Joe
         As reported by bne IntelliNews,   he said.                             Biden should “use all means at his disposal
       Gazprom has previously boosted its gas   Sadygov separately said that Gazprom   to prevent” the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
       exports to Europe by 41.5% y/y in the first   is about to finish the executive motivation   project from completion, Poland’s Foreign
       15 days of January 2021 to 9.1bn cubic   program and will approve it in 2021.  Minister Zbigniew Rau and his Ukrainian
       metres, the second-best reading ever.                                    counterpart Dmytro Kuleba said in a letter
         Even though a sharp rise in German                                     published by Politico Europe on February
       exports was anticipated due to cold                                      22.
       weather, the news is positive for Gazprom,                                 Neighbouring countries Poland and
       "underlining just how much the European                                  Ukraine have long been irked by the
       gas market has improved in the last three   Bashneft posts $154mn loss   looming completion of the pipeline, which
       months," BCS Global Markets analysts                                     would double the size of Russia’s gas
       commented on February 14.           in 2020                              exports directly to Germany, circumventing
         Gazprom’s sales to the countries of                                    Ukraine and stripping it of transit income, a
       Central Europe are expected to be strong   Bashneft, an oil producer of Bashkiria   potentially destabilizing factor. The foreign
       in the month due to the onset of very cold   republic in Russia, reported a $154mn loss   ministers' letter represents a last attempt to
       weather over the region, but which should   under IFRS for 2020. The company's loss for   stiffen US opposition to the pipeline, which
       quickly warm this week, BCS GM analysts   4Q20 alone stood at $94mn.     is now very close to completion.
       note.                                  VTB Capital (VTBC) analysts on      Poland is among the staunchest
         In December 2020 BCS Global Markets   February 15 noted that even as Bashneft's   opponents of Nord Stream 2 and Russian
       "enthusiastically confirmed" a Buy call   results were anticipated to be weak, they   influence in Europe. Polish officials argue
       on Gazprom. The analysts noted that   were lower than expectations, with Ebitda   that Nord Stream 2 will needlessly increase
       Gazprom's exports are recovering faster   missing the analysts' forecast by 22%.   Europe’s dependence on Gazprom for gas.
       than expected after a tough year, with   VTBC reminds that Bashneft is more   In October, the Polish antimonopoly
       European exports seen returning to normal   exposed to refining (as opposed to crude oil   watchdog UOKiK slapped Kremlin-run
       by 2023..                           sales) than any other integrated oil company  gas supplier Gazprom with a $7.6bn fine
                                           in Russia, and the final quarter of 2020 was   for going ahead with the Nord Stream 2
                                           not favourable for the downstream segment,   pipeline without its consent.
       Gazprom says to pay                 especially domestically in Russia.   more integrated, internally resilient and
                                                                                  “Europeans decided to move toward a
                                              In addition, the negative bottom line
       dividends fully for 2020,           for Bashneft was exacerbated by other   transparent market for natural gas in order
                                                                                to better withstand future disruptions.
                                           expenses and a foreign currency loss. VTBC
       2021                                analysts warn that Bashneft is unlikely to   However, the Kremlin was busy drafting
                                                                                a plan that would strengthen its grip on
                                           pay dividends for 2020 given the net loss
       Russian gas giant Gazprom will pay full   (official dividend payout policy of 25%   Europe’s gas supply and untether Ukraine
       dividends for 2020, while payments for 2021  of IFRS net income), and affirm a Hold   from the rest of Europe,” Rau and Kuleba
       will reach 50% of the adjusted net profit   recommendation on the company's shares.  wrote.
       under International Financial Reporting   Bashneft is consolidating its oil   “This is how Russia came up with the
       Standards (IFRS), Deputy CEO Famil   extraction assets in the Republic of   idea for Nord Stream … touted as a tool
       Sadygov said late onFebruary 21.    Bashkortostan (Bashkiria). The company   for diversification of natural gas supplies
         "I’ve said many times that yes, in   and its solid cash flow and dividend payout   to Europe. In reality, Nord Stream was
       accordance with the dividend policy we   were in focus after a dramatic takeover by   designed to sabotage Europe’s energy
       have a chance not to pay dividends for 2021,   Russian state oil major Rosneft from private   security,” they warned.
       if net debt to EBITDA is above 2.5,” Sadygov  investment conglomerate AFK Sistema and   The ministers’ call is coming as Germany
       said.                               a corporate conflict that was finally settled   is seeking to make a deal with the US that
         “We expect an increase of the figure this   in March 2018.             would ease the completion of Russian
       year, in the results of 2020. I’ve reiterated   Currently Rosneft owns 57.66% in the   Nord Stream 2 pipeline via the Baltic Sea,
       that we have no plans to use it as a pretext   company, with 25% held by Bashkiria's local   Bloomberg reported on February 16, citing
       for nonpayment or lower payment."   government, 8% treasury shares, 4.4% held   sources familiar with the matter. The US has
         According to the official, Gazprom   by companies affiliated with Bashneft, and   imposed sanctions on companies involved
       expects the net debt to earnings    about 4% held by minority shareholders.  in the project in an effort to block the
       before interest, taxes, depreciation and   As reported by bne IntelliNews, Rosneft   pipeline.
       amortization (EBITDA) ratio to decrease   itself suffered a near 80% drop in net profit   The construction of the pipeline was
       below 2 in 2021 from slightly less than 3   in 2020, as the coronavirus (COVID-19)   halted for a year due to earlier imposed
       estimated for 2020.                 pandemic sapped fuel demand and caused   sanctions, but Russian gas giant Gazprom is
         "This was the key challenge for us not to   prices to collapse.        determined to complete both lines of Nord
       allow significant deterioration of the debt                              Stream 2 by the end of April 2021.



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