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“I guess the plus factor from the above is that the message from the market is now loud and clear – we will only finance you if you stay on track with the IMF. Therein it
is really important for the Rada to finally sign off on an IMF compliant budget for 2019 – no messing around with sneaking in a broad coverage ECT,” Ash added. “Message to
bne:Tech
4G growing fast in CEE with mobile penetrations running ahead of the global average
EWDN in Moscow
The research branch of international mobile operator association GSMA has released a report on the mobile economy in Russia and 11 neighbouring countries that found the digital economy and telecoms services are grow- ing faster than the global average, East-West Digital News (EWDN) reports.
The report covers Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Geor- gia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmeni- stan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Mobile penetration rates
The region was home to 232mn unique mobile subscribers at the end of 2017, which corresponds to a rather high penetra- tion rate of 80% vs. global average of 66%. The three largest markets – Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan – together account for 80% of the region’s total subscriber base.
With 89% of the population subscribing to mobile services, Russia is one of the most highly penetrated countries in the world –ahead of the European and Northern America averages (85% and 84%, respectively) as well as Latin America and Asia Pacific (both 67%). Some of Russia’s neighbours are at a lower stage of development, such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with 60% subscriber penetration rates.
“Given the relatively high level of penetration, growth over the next few years will be limited,” expect the GSMA analysts.
Ukrainian policy makers = no room for complacency. And I cannot underscore how damaging that decision was to screw around with the IMF in terms of gas pricing. Gas prices should have been increased as had been agreed as part of the 3rd review under the EFF back in April 2017.”
In 2025, the number of mobile subscribers in Russia will be the same as in 2017 (128mn), while the region will see only a 2 percentage-point increase in penetration (242mn unique subscribers in the region, accounting for 82% of the popula- tion. Almost half the additional subscribers will come from Uzbekistan, a country that is the third most populous but one of the least penetrated in the region.
Shift to mobile broadband
Russia was one of the first countries in the region to launch 4G in 2012, notes the report. “4G coverage and network quality remain key competitive factors in the Russian market, with all four of the main operators launching LTE-Advanced networks in recent years.”
4G networks will account for over a half of connections by early 2022, predicts the report, up from one fifth at the end of 2018.
Mobile broadband will progress fast at the regional level, too, with “4G overtaking 2G as a proportion of connections in early 2020, and becoming the leading mobile technology in 2021.” 4G will account for nearly two-thirds of total connections by 2025, the GSMA analysts believe.
5G will follow fast, with “network launches expected in Russia from around the end of 2020 [and] more than 80% of the Russian population covered by 2025.” The report sees enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) as a likely initial focus
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