Page 29 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020

8.0​ Markets outlook
• Ruble
The ruble is expected to stay stable in 2020, in the base case trading on average around the RUB65 to the dollar mark (+/- RUB2/$).
The low economic growth rate and many years of sanctions have not only meant corporate Russia has very healthy balance sheets and proper FX asset/liability matches, but has also allowed companies to question their needs to attract new capital, in the form of both bond and stocks issuance, as banks have been flush with liquidity, happily providing credit outside of the financial marketplace.
Over the counter (OTC) trading of the ruble outside of Russia has grown by 84% over the past three years ​and now it has overtaken trading the ruble against foreign currencies inside the country for the first time, according to Bank for International Settlements (BIS), RBC reported on December 12.
According to BIS, in April 2019, the most recent data available, the average daily turnover of “offshore” ruble trade amounted to $40bn, which is 84% more than in 2016.
The largest increase in foreign transactions among emerging market currencies was the Indian rupee, up 179%, Hong Kong dollar (176%) and Korean won (97%) putting Russia’s ruble in fourth place.
Inside Russia the transactions between residents was half the offshore trading in the ruble, or $20bn, which was down by a quarter (27%) since 2016.
29​ EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com