Page 27 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020

5.0​ Fiscal policy outlook
Key parameters: federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,363.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
Revenues
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Expenditure
RUB bn
16,713.00
18,293.70
19 ,82.1
20,632.00
21,770.70
Expenditure
% GDP
16.1
16.8
17.3
17.1
16.9
Balance
RUB bn
2741.4
1,881.20
880.8
614.5
287.6
Balance
% GDP
2.6
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
The government expects Russia’s budget surplus to amount to 1.7% of GDP in 2019​, below the initial guidance of 1.8%, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said during a government meeting. The initial guidance was reduced in June, and more amendments to the budget were approved at the beginning of December reducing the surplus to 1.4% of GDP, or to RUB1.48 trillion.
The Duma approved the new federal budget for 2020-22 ​in the third, final reading. The new budget law does not contain any significant changes from the original draft that was submitted by the Cabinet in late September. Despite expected economic expansion, the government’s revenue and expenditure as a percentage of GDP are projected to fall: from 18.1% for revenue and 17.3% for spending in 2020 down to, respectively, 17.2% and 16.9% in 2022. The
27​ EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com