Page 13 - AfrOil Week 14 2022

AfrOil POLICY AfrOil

Vandalism and theft on the network further and storage should be the priority until at least
weakens Eskom’s capacity to deliver. Last year, 2030. “The risks associated with gas are increas-
2,752 incidents were recorded, costing an esti- ing, while the alternatives to gas are rapidly
mated ZAR200mn ($13.6mn), according to improving. Since gas is not needed in the power
Business Day. To better protect its assets, Eskom sector until at least 2035, deliberations about the
employed 450 more security guards and drones start of a gas-to-power sector should be shelved
with infrared cameras at a cost of ZAR50mn. until at least 2030,” said Halsey. “When the gov-
Mabuza told members of Parliament that the ernment reassesses gas investments at the end of
power utility is also converting some decom- the decade, based on the availability and cost of
missioned power stations to produce renewa- alternative technologies such as green hydrogen,
ble energy. Asked if the country had a contract it is likely that there will be no logical role for gas
with Russia to build a gas-fired plant at Coega in the mix.”
in the Eastern Cape, he said: “I’m not aware of Gas poses the risk of higher energy costs for
these projects, especially those that are Russian consumers and additional transition challenges
connected.” for workers in the fossil fuel industry, IISD
On March 28, Mozambique laid the foun- added. Adding methane emissions across the
dation stone for a $2bn, 450-MW gas-to-power value chain, gas power could be as detrimental
(GTP) project in which Sasol, a South African to the climate as coal, it asserted.
company, is the major investor. Discussions The report argues that in an efficient energy
were said to be underway, for some of the out- mix, the majority (or bulk supply) of power
put from Central Termica de Temane (CTT), should be as cheap as possible, while peaking
expected to be online in January 2025, to be plants should be used to cope with daily spikes
sold to South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini, in demand. Finally, balancing (or backup)
according to local media. power is needed to smooth out peaks and valleys
Sasol operates an 865-km pipeline from of demand and supply, it said.
onshore gas fields in Inhambane to South Africa The IISD report found that wind and solar
where the gas is processed into petrochemicals farms in South Africa are 57% cheaper than
or sold to industrial customers. combined-cycle gas plants for bulk electric-
ity supply, while 3-hour battery storage is 30%
IISD: Renewables a better option than gas cheaper than simple cycle gas plants for cover-
These events coincided with the publication of a ing peak power demand. South Africa’s existing
new report asseting that any investment in gas- electricity system, which mostly runs on coal
fired generation by South Africa would prove to power, can also provide some of the balancing
be a waste of money, as cheaper renewables and function in the short to medium term.
battery storage technology would soon under- According to the report, significantly
cut it. increasing renewables and storage capacity can
Research by International Institute for Sus- address power system challenges that lead to
tainable Development (IISD) concluded that frequent load-shedding – the rotational power
such investment would be an economic disaster cuts by state-owned utility Eskom to maintain
for South Africa and could negatively affect the overall grid stability.
country’s climate and ability to meet emissions “To solve load-shedding as quickly as pos-
reductions commitments. sible, and to build the foundation of an opti-
The IISD said in its study, entitled “Gas Pres- mal, low-cost future energy mix, South Africa
sure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in should significantly ramp up its investments
South Africa,” that developing an extensive gas- in solar, wind, storage and technologies that
to-power sector in South Africa from scratch integrate renewables into the grid,” said Halsey.
would cost ZAR47bn ($3.2bn) for the first 3,000 “Since renewables contribute only a small part
MW of gas capacity. The report warned that of the electricity mix, a combination of existing
this money could ultimately be wasted as gas is pumped storage, liquid fuel generators, grid
squeezed out of the market by cheaper, low-car- integration methods and the remaining coal
bon alternatives. fleet can provide the balancing function for at
South Africa’s Department of Mineral least the next 13 years.” ™
Resources and Energy has proposed establish-
ing a gas-to-power sector as part of the energy
transition. However, the IISD study called for a
moratorium on gas-fired power in the country.
“Based on system analysis, this would be a
costly mistake,” said Richard Halsey, a policy
advisor at the institute and co-author of the
report. “We strongly believe that a moratorium
should be placed on the development of the gas-
to-power sector, and further research should
be done to better understand how advances in
alternatives to gas will affect the optimal energy
mix.”
Instead, the report found that renewables Eskom will use gas to raise power production (Image: Eskom)

Week 14 06•April•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P13