Page 14 - IRANRptAug21

3.2 Macroeconomic outlook
IFF forecasts Iranian growth in relation to three possible outcomes of nuclear deal ‘restart talks’
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has forecast three economic scenarios for Iran in relation to the outcome of the ongoing Vienna talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, between the Islamic Republic and major powers.
The first scenario predicts expected GDP and other indicators should the JCPOA negotiations produce a restart of the same deal signed six years ago, prior to the former US Trump administration unilaterally pulling Washington out of it three years ago; the second scenario assesses likely economic progress should an expanded JCPOA be signed; and the third scenario looks at likely consequences should the talks fail.
Old deal
If there is a return only to the terms of the 2015 deal, Iran’s real GDP could grow by 3.5% this year, and by 4.1% and 3.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, said the IIF, a trade body for the global financial industry.
“The modest recovery may not reduce unemployment significantly, which currently hovers around 20%,” it said.
“The likely outcome for the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] negotiations is a return to the 2015 agreement, which would keep many sanctions in place. Such a limited agreement would deter significant investment by Western firms, making a sharp pickup in growth unlikely,” the IIF added.
New, expanded deal
Should the signatories to the original JCPOA manage to agree a comprehensive new nuclear agreement that moves beyond the 2015 terms, Iran would see GDP expand by 4.3% this year and by 5.9% and 5.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, the IIF forecast.
Also under this scenario, official reserves could more than double by the end of 2023 from $70bn as of May this year, foreign direct investment would help deliver jobs and Iran would achieve a fiscal surplus by 2023, the organisation said.
US President Joe Biden wants to eventually broaden the nuclear pact to put tighter controls on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes and address Tehran’s support for various militant groups in the Middle East. Iran has
14 IRAN Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com