Page 15 - IRANRptAug21

Iran set to see growth after three years of recession says World Bank
Iran currently on course for 2.5% growth in 2021 says IMF
rejected overtures from the US aimed at securing these objectives.
No deal
If Tehran and the major powers fail to strike any agreement to revive the JCPOA, unemployment in Iran would likely remain in double digits and there would be subued economic growth of 1.8% this year, the IIF concluded.
Iran appears to have lately emerged from a bitter recession that lasted nearly three years.
Iran has endured three years of recession under US sanctions (see table below) but if the forecasting of the January edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report proves correct 2021 should bring growth.
The World Bank anticipates Iran recording a GDP expansion this year of 1.5%, followed by 2022 growth of 1.7%. Should Tehran manage to strike a breakthrough deal for the lifting of heavy US sanctions by the incoming Joe Biden administration and should the coronavirus crisis be for the most part overcome in the Islamic Republic in the year ahead, the forecasts would likely be substantially upgraded.
“Growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to recover as domestic consumption and tourism begin to normalize, and disruptions related to COVID-19 taper. Oil production in MENA [Middle East North Africa region] is expected to rise as global oil demand recovers,” the World Bank wrote in the report edition.
Iran is among countries that has had to dip into its sovereign wealth fund in the past year to mitigate fiscal pressure caused by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, it added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Iran’s economy will expand by 2.5% in 2021 following estimated growth of 1.5% in 2020. Prior to possibly squeezing out some growth last year, Iran, under the burden of heavy US sanctions, was in an economic recession that lasted towards three years.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report released this week, the Fund also said Iran might achieve 2.1% growth in 2022.
However, all the predictions could change rapidly depending on the outcome of
15 IRAN Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com