Page 22 - UKRRptMar19

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.50%
3.40%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
7.80%
6.10%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
18.20%
12.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.40%
3.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2 983
3516
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2 638
3086
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
13.70%
8.90%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.40%
11.90%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.50%
8.80%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reviewed downwards the assessment of growth of real GDP of the country in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.4%, according to a posting on the website of the central bank.
The forecast of GDP for the next two years remained unchanged: 2.5% and 2.9% respectively.
"As previously predicted, real GDP growth in 2019 will slow to 2.5%. This is due to tight monetary policies needed to reduce inflation to the target and restrained fiscal policy due to the repayment of significant amounts of public debt this year," the central bank said.
Additional factors slowing down the economy will be a decline in the grain harvest after hitting the record in 2018, as well as a gradual slowdown in the global economy and trade, particularly due to the influence of protectionist measures being taken in the world.
Private consumption will remain the key driver of economic growth thanks to a further increase in real incomes of the population – wages, pension payments, and remittances from abroad.
22 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com