Page 24 - UKRRptMar19

Source: national sources, wiiw, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (UAH mn)
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
2.18
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
2,640
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
2,592,546
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
474,133
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
1,430,790
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
1,607,035
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output declined 3.3% year-on-year in January, after a 3.5% y/y drop in December, due to a continuing decline in manufacturing and a production drop in mining, the nation's state statistics agency Ukrstat reported on February 25. Seasonally adjusted output decreased 0.5% month-on-month. Manufacturing output decreased 5.5% y/y in January (after an 8.6% y/y drop in December). In particular, output in chemicals plunged 14.9% y/y while machinery declined 11.9% y/y. Output in metallurgy dropped 4.5% y/y, and food production dropped 1.9% y/y. Mining output dropped 1.6% y/y in January (after rising 1.8% y/y in December) due to ore production falling 7.1% y/y. Meanwhile, coal production grew 16.2% y/y while oil and gas output increased 4.3% y/y. The supply of electricity and natural gas increased 1.3% y/y in January. Regionally, growth was strongest in the Rivne (22.9% y/y), Vinnytiya (13.8% y/y) and Zakarpattia (9.6% y/y) regions. Declines were steepest in Chernihiv (-17.4% y/y), Khmelnytskiy (-15.5% y/y) and Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk (-13% y/y). Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on February 26 that that January brought no positive developments for Ukraine’s industrial production. "So far, we don’t see the positive effect of a record grain harvest on the food industry," she added. "Relatively warm weather in January restrained growth in electricity and natural gas consumption." Concorde forecasts Ukraine’s industrial output to increase 2% y/y in 2019 (vs. 1.1% y/y in 2018).
24 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com