Page 44 - UKRRptMar19

6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports 5.6 3.9 5.9 6 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 cov (months)
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt stayed flat at $78.3bn in January , the nation's Finance Ministry reported on February 25. A rise in state domestic debt was offset by declines in state-guaranteed foreign debt. In particular, the state domestic debt increased 0.2% m/m to $27.bn. Meanwhile, state-guaranteed debt dropped 1.1% m/m to $10.6bn. State foreign debt remained flat at $39.7bn. In UAH terms, overall state debt increased 0.2% m/m as domestic state debt rose 0.5% m/m and state foreign debt inched up 0.2% m/m. Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a research note on February 2t that state domestic debt increased in January as newly attracted government debt from the placement of local bonds exceeded redemptions. Specifically, the newly placed domestic debt reached UAH41.7bn while repayments amounted to UAH36.9bn. "Meanwhile, the state-guaranteed debt declined mostly due to reduced positions with several foreign banks," Akhtyrko added. "The increase of state debt in UAH terms was mostly due to a 0.3% depreciation of the national currency in January." Concorde projected state and state-guaranteed debt will increase to $80.8bn in 2019, or to around 62% of GDP. According to its estimate, state debt amounted to 61.5% of GDP in 2018.
Ukraine needs to pay off more than $15bn of its state debt in 2019, the Ministry of Finance said in a macroeconomic report, released on February 14. "State debt payments will peak in 2019-2021. The overall state debt payments due in 2019 are set at UAH417bn ($15.4bn), including about $9bn to be paid in foreign currencies," the report says. Internal debt payments will total UAH150.5bn ($5.57bn) and foreign debt payments, UAH121.8bn (4.5bn). Another UAH145.4bn ($5.4bn) is to be paid for servicing the internal and foreign debt. The Ministry of Finance vows Ukraine will manage to further reduce the state debt against the country’s GDP. At the end of 2018 the ratio stood at 62%. The ministry says a 60% debt-GDP ratio is safe.
44 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com