Page 46 - UKRRptMar19

Economists project state and state-guaranteed debt will increase to $80.8bn in 2019, or around 62% of GDP.
7.0 FX Source: CEIC
Exchange rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Official UAH/USD (eop) 7.7 7.99 7.96 7.99 7.99 7.99 15.77 23.41 26.20 27.52
Official UAH/USD (avg) 5.27 7.79 7.94 7.97 7.99 7.99 11.89 21.84 22.55 26.60
Wage remittances to Ukraine from labour migrants hit $11bn last year,
according to Ekateryna Rozhkova, first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine. Assuming this figure is accurate, it means that money sent home by Ukrainians working outside the country increased by 50% since the summer of 2017, when the EU adopted a ‘no visa’ policy for 90-day stay stays by Ukrainians.
Farm exports account for 39% of foreign currency entering Ukraine,
Prime Minister Groysman told the Cabinet of Ministers on February 13. President Poroshenko told the Dragon conference Tuesday that a key challenge for the 2020s is for Ukraine to add value to farm exports by increasing processing.
By sending $1bn a month home, Ukrainians working abroad maintain the hryvnia exchange rate little changed and offset Ukraine’s growing trade deficit . This flow – far larger than IMF aid and foreign direct investment combined – gives the government breathing room to adopt market reforms that will stimulate real investment, experts tell UNIAN in a lengthy analysis. In a race against time, the government must create conditions for creating jobs with decent pay -- or risk losing ‘temporary’ migrants to permanent residence in the EU, the report warns.
Last year, 7-9mn Ukrainians worked outside the country, half of them living abroad permanently , according to the Social Policy Ministry. Separately, about one third of 40,000 Ukrainians surveyed in December by Rating polling group would like to get a job outside the country. Of these one half would like to earn enough money to come home and start a small business here, Alexey Antipovich, director of Rating, told a migration roundtable in Kyiv last week.
Starting Friday March 1, the central bank cuts the mandatory amount of foreign currency that businesses must sell for hryvnia to 30% of export earnings, from 50% today, Churiy said. Without specifying dates, he said the Bank will eventually abolish this limit and the limit of on repatriation of dividends. As a first step on dividend repatriation, he said the bank plans to raise the monthly limit to €10mn, from €7mn today.
46 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com