Page 5 - AfrOil Week 01 2023

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

The Turkish fleet vessel was first installed off- attractive to a super-major like BP.
shore Dakar in October 2019. According to These prospects are attractive enough, in any
information posted on Karpowership’s website, event, that they seem to justify taking out loans
it is slated to remain there until March 2025, as it in relatively small amounts such as $71mn, a fig-
is operating under a contract with a term of five ure that is several orders of magnitude below the
and a half years. $5bn cost estimate for GTA Phase I. They also
So it seems, then, that Senegal will continue seem to make the volumes of LNG that will be
to import LNG at least until March 2025, even handled by the Karadeniz Powership Ayşegül
though it is slated to start producing its own Sultan, which is capable of taking on 125,000
LNG by the end of 2023. That is, it will still be cubic metres (87.5 tonnes), seem quite small in
buying LNG from foreign suppliers and having comparison to GTA Phase I’s planned produc-
it delivered to MOL’s FSRU so that KARMOL tion capacity of 5mn tonnes per year (tpy). Senegal will
can use the regasified fuel to generate electric- continue to
ity on the Karadeniz Powership Ayşegül Sultan Awaiting Yakaar-Teranga
between the final quarter of 2023 and the first Additionally, LNG deliveries to the FSRU will import LNG
quarter of 2025, despite the fact that BP (UK), serve the concrete purpose of providing Sene-
the operator of the offshore GTA block, is on lec with gas for its thermal power plants (TPPs) until at least
track to start producing LNG from the first during a period when the utility is waiting for
phase of the GTA project later this year. new domestic gas resources to become available. March 2025,
This may seem like a waste, but it is not nec- GTA is not, after all, the country’s only even though it
essarily so. gas-bearing site; Senegal’s offshore zone is also
home to an offshore block known as Yakaar- is due to begin
Facilitating GTA exports Teranga. This block is slated to begin yielding
The thing to remember is that GTA Phase I is gas in 2024, and its operator – BP, once again – is producing its
an export-oriented project. Its operator has not looking to deliver part of its future production to
made the necessary arrangements to deliver part shore for domestic use. What’s more, it has been own LNG by
of its production to shore for use in power pro- talking about building a pipeline to pump gas to end-2023
duction, and it would likely prefer not to revamp Senelec at the rate of around 2.5bn cubic metres
its plans (or its budget) at this late date, so close per year in order to support the operation of
to the deadline for first gas. nine TPPs, in line with a government plan.
Likewise, BP may see gas exports as a more As such, the FSRU will support Senegal by
likely source of revenue than domestic power ensuring that the national power provider has
generation in Senegal. Global energy prices a means of importing gas while waiting for the
may now be lower than they were a year ago, Yakaar-Teranga project to come to fruition. Sen-
prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, due to egal therefore has good reasons to move forward
unseasonably warm weather in Europe. How- with the KARMOL deal even after GTA comes
ever, market volatility is still enough of a factor on line, and the credits from JBIC and MUFG
to make the prospect of European LNG sales will be welcome. ™

The Block C, GTA and Yakaar-Teranga licence areas are adjacent to each other (Image: Kosmos Energy)

Week 01 05•January•2023 www. NEWSBASE .com P5