Page 6 - AsiaElec Week 19 2022

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might have stepped in to fill some of the global the pressure on agriculture prices will acceler-
gap in wheat production caused by the inva- ate, warned Les Nemethy CEO and founder of
sion of Ukraine. But the new normal of extreme Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors.
weather could put paid to that in India and
other places around the world. Climate change Rising prices
will make this far worse in coming years and Rising prices for wheat is also pushing up infla-
decades,” said Matt Williams, climate and land tion in many importing countries. The EBRD
programme lead at the Energy and Climate warned this week that inflation soared to 11.9%
Intelligence Unit (ECIU). in March, the month after the invasion, which is
This is a prime example of how food produc- close to the peak recorded during the interna-
tion and indeed food security in the developing tional financial crisis in late 2008.
world is vulnerable to climate change, a situation “Prices of wheat, corn, soybeans and other
that the current war is intensifying. agricultural commodities have also risen rap-
One irony is that agriculture itself is one con- idly,” the EBRD says.
tributor to climate change, with 23% of all global “Many economies in the EBRD regions are
greenhouse gases coming from farming, loss of highly dependent on gas in their energy mix,
forests, and other land-use changes. while some economies in the Caucasus and
Without changes, emissions from the food southern and eastern Mediterranean rely heavily
system could increase by 30-40% by 2050, reduc- on wheat imports,” the bank said in its Regional
ing the chances of keeping temperature rises to Economic Prospects report.
1.5C, the ECIU said in a briefing. The EBRD also warned that North Africa was
While contributing significantly to climate facing major threats to its food supply , as they
change, food production and food supply chains are the world’s biggest importers of grain.
are also at increasing risk from its most damag- Egypt is particularly exposed to the Rus-
ing impacts, with farmers deemed as one of the so-Ukraine war, as it sources 42% of all the cal-
most vulnerable groups to climate change. ories it imports from Russia and Ukraine. And
By 2050 harvests of staple crops in eight Egypt, along with Lebanon, import three quar-
countries – Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozam- ters (75%) of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.
bique, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia and Zimba- Alongside Africa, India’s current heatwaves
bwe – could fall by 80% due to climate change, are also threatening food supplies, even though
forcing farmers to switch to different types of India is a net exporter of wheat.
crop, the International Fund for Agricultural Large parts of India risk becoming unin-
Development (IFAD) warned ahead of COP26 habitable in future if current heat waves persist,
in November 2021. threatening migration and climate crises that
could displace 1.3bn people.
Farming practices The war in Ukraine has had a major impact
But efforts to boost production globally have on global food markets, highlighting just how
been hampered by shortages of chemical fertil- fragile food systems how are how vulnerable
iser. Russia and Belarus produced 40% cent of some countries are to supply shocks.
international potash exports in 2021 and that Consumers face higher prices, while an
trade has also been hit by the war. inflexible global supply chain means that sup-
Fertiliser are now at their highest since the plies in alternative countries cannot quickly be
global commodity bubble in 2008, with the cost brought onto the market quickly.
of nitrogen fertilisers rising by 253% in Europe Any ways to deal with the crisis, such as devel-
in 2021. oping regional grain reserves, clamping down on
This cannot be attributed exclusively to the excessive grain speculation, debt relief for poorer
Ukraine crisis – tensions over Ukraine did not nation or supporting domestic food production,
begin to peak until late 2021. But they have con- may deal with underlying trends and will play
tinued to climb in proportion to the growing their part in combating climate change.
forces amassed on the border. But sudden events such as the war in Ukraine
If farmers don’t use fertiliser, they will see show just how vulnerable the global food system
their yields fall; if they do use fertiliser, they will is to sudden interruptions.™
have to pass through input costs. Either way,

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 19 11•May•2022