Page 101 - RusRPTJul20

9.1.6​ Agriculture sector news
Russian farmers who are highly dependent on Central Asian workers to harvest their crops are in a bind as the coronavirus pandemic lockdown has left hundreds of thousands of migrants unable to get into Russia​. The shortage of the cheap source of labor provided by the foreign workers -- hundreds of thousands are needed for the seasonal work -- has created a crisis for segments of Russia's agricultural sector and threatens its food chains. The dire situation has prompted some Russian experts to call on Moscow to allow tens of thousands of migrant workers to enter Russia despite the lockdown in order to save the harvests. They estimated that there is currently a need for some 500,000 additional workers in Russia's agriculture sector.
The Ministry of Agriculture is considering not imposing a grain export quota if the harvest exceeds 125mnt and export potential tops 45mnt, according to Vedomosti. The decision might be revisited in the second part of the farming year (from January), taking into account accumulated foreign trade. In MY20 (July-June), the grain export quota was put in place from 1 April to secure domestic supply and limit price inflation when the local currency was volatile. The volume was set at 7mnt outside the Eurasian Economic Union and was fulfilled by 26 April, largely representing a constructive approach to the remaining grain stock outside of domestic consumption. The grain harvest in the launching season, from July (MY21), sees the harvest growing 6% YoY to 128mnt and export adding 9% YoY to 48mnt, according to IKAR, as adverse weather in the south regions is offset by strong volumes in the central and Volga regions. The respective export figures would mean Russia taking the leading spot in wheat globally and fourth in grain overall, according to USDA. The absence of an export quota is likely to leave greater room for price inflation this year, in our view. In June, export prices added 5% YoY while
101​ RUSSIA Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com