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AfrOil                                       COMMENTARY                                                AfrOil


                         The company will then ask interested parties to   and would need significant lender support,” the
                         submit non-binding offers in the second phase,   source said. Under these circumstances, selling
                         they added.                          SPDC to “an international private group with
                           As of press time, Shell had not confirmed   operating expertise – for example, Perenco or a
                         This Day’s report. When contacted by the   Chinese player – might make [the] most sense,”
                         Nigerian newspaper, a company spokesman   he remarked.
                         acknowledged that Shell was discussing the fate   It might also make sense to look for a Nige-
                         of its onshore Nigerian projects with Abuja. He   rian investor with roots in the Niger River
                         also stressed, though, that these talks were pre-  Delta, where most of SPDC’s assets are located,
                         liminary in nature.                  given that Shell has often drawn criticism for its
                           “Discussions with the Nigerian government   involvement in the oil spills and political repres-
                         are ongoing on the next steps for our onshore   sion that have blighted the region. Presumably
                         business in Nigeria,” he told This Day. “We are   such an investor might be more sensitive to the
                         in the early stages of reviewing the commercial   challenges facing host communities. It remains
                         options.”                            to be seen, though, whether such hopes can be   Shell might be
                                                              realised.                             willing to split
                         Climate concerns
                         One of This Day’s sources stated that climate   New divestment rules      SPDC’s holdings
                         concerns were among the factors that had led the   The second source was speaking shortly before
                         Anglo-Dutch giant to opt for divesting SPDC.  Mele Kyari, the group managing director of  among multiple
                           “Shell is selling the business because it no   NNPC, said that his company was developing
                         longer views its activities in the Niger Delta as   strict criteria to govern the divestment of Nige-  buyers
                         core to its ongoing strategy, which is driven by   rian assets by IOCs.
                         the pressure from its investors, as confirmed by   Speaking at the opening session of an
                         its CEO earlier this year,” he said. “Also, several of   industry conference in Lagos, Kyari remarked
                         the Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) have upcoming   that NNPC could not prevent foreign compa-
                         development costs, which Shell does not intend   nies from unloading Nigerian fields. He also
                         to fund.”                            declared, though, that the company had learned
                           Plans for the sale are not expected to affect   from past experience that it should not allow
                         Shell’s portfolio of deepwater Nigerian assets,   investors to depart without resolving certain
                         the source added. “The [deepwater] business   issues to NNPC’s satisfaction.
                         will be worth several billions of dollars, and   The issues in question, he said, include mak-
                         Shell will want full-value offers for the deal but   ing provisions to cover third-party liabilities,
                         is strategically driven in this disposal and will   severance payments to staff and abandonment
                         likely prefer low-execution risk to waiting for a   and relinquishment costs. Additionally, he said,
                         knockout offer,” he commented.       NNPC expects sellers to take the steps necessary
                                                              to check that buyers have the technical, opera-
                         Nigerian interests                   tional and financial capability to assume respon-
                         Meanwhile, another source speculated as to how   sibility for the assets in question, especially now
                         the divestment might proceed.        that foreign lenders are less keen on investing in
                           He told This Day that Shell might be willing   fossil fuel projects.
                         to split SPDC’s holdings among multiple inves-  As such, the state-run company intends to
                         tors rather than selling it all to a single buyer.   draw up clear policies and criteria governing
                         The company’s portfolio includes onshore fields,   the process of divestment from joint ventures
                         shallow-water offshore fields and infrastructure,   and production-sharing contracts (PSCs). He
                         and potential investors are likely to value each   did not say when NNPC might finalise the new
                         type of asset differently, he explained.  rules. ™
                           The second source also said it was “under-
                         stood” that Abuja would favour proposals for
                         selling Shell’s stake in the joint venture to com-
                         panies or groups that are at least partially Nige-
                         rian-owned. Since SPDC “is very likely too large
                         for any single acquirer ... Shell may sell portions
                         of equity in the whole of SPDC to different con-
                         sortia of buyers,” he commented. “But either
                         way, buyers will need to have a local Nigerian
                         element.”
                           The Nigerian government is considering
                         several different options, he claimed. Officials in
                         Abuja understand that large publicly listed inter-
                         national oil companies (IOCs) may be reluctant
                         to make an offer for SPDC, owing to the risk
                         associated with Nigeria and the difficulty of rais-
                         ing funds for such a deal now that many lenders
                         are limiting their exposure to fossil fuels.
                           “Local sponsors may be interested, but this
                         would constitute a very transformational deal                   (File Photo)



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