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To what end? which was blocked for six days after a container
Erdogan has made no secret of the fact that he vessel ran aground, demonstrates that even
views Kanal Istanbul as a project of great per- the best managed canals are not immune from
sonal importance that he intends to see com- accidents.
pleted despite mounting criticism over the The canal will thus offer little advantage
potential political, military, commercial and to vessels travelling in either direction and it
environmental impact, both from within Turkey appears increasingly likely that, to encourage
and internationally. ships to use it, Ankara will have to direct traffic
But even as the contracting and construction there one way or another.
of the canal is set to start, the basic business case It could revoke the Montreux Conven-
for it is not clear: Why would shippers opt to pay tion entirely, or more likely introduce new
a transit fee to use a canal when the Bosporus restrictions on Bosphorus traffic that would
is free? have the practical effect of reducing traf-
Turkish officials insist that the canal will offer fic through the straits without altering the
a safer option for transit than the Bosporus, and convention.
have suggested that the canal would allow ship- Such a move wouldn’t be unprecedented. In
pers to avoid the delays from which Bosporus the mid-1990s, Turkey required all vessels pass-
traffic occasionally suffers. ing through the Bosporus en route to or from a
While it’s true that navigation through the Turkish port to employ a Turkish pilot for the
planned canal will not entail the same tricky traverse. While large tankers do opt to use pilots,
90-degree turns that the Bosporus requires, acci- most other vessels transiting the Bosphorus
dents in the straits are nevertheless extremely choose not to incur the expense.
rare. Ankara also says it will not allow tankers
The last major incident involving a tanker – a carrying liquified natural gas (LNG) to transit
Russian fuel oil tanker, not a super tanker carry- the Bosporus, a stance that technically violates
ing crude oil – was back in 1999, before a radar the Montreux Convention but which has never
vessel transit system (VTS) was installed to track been tested given that no Black Sea littoral state
vessels and help aid safer navigation. In the 19 has an LNG import or export terminal. But it’s
years that the VTS has been in operation there also not clear that it would allow LNG tank-
have been no major incidents involving tankers ers to use the canal, given that it will be nar-
and no oil spills at all. rower and potentially just as dangerous as the
Delays are not uncommon on the Bospo- Bosphorus.
rus, which can be closed due to bad weather In any case, the government may come up
or the passage of unusually large vessels which with new rules designed to nudge shippers
require traffic to be restricted to one direction toward the Kanal, whether they like it or not.
only. But they rarely last more than a few hours Erdogan may see the canal as helping ensure
and the canal, if built, would likely face similar the Black Sea “continues to be a sea of peace,
limitations. serenity and cooperation.” But his neighbours
And the recent incident on the Suez Canal, may take more convincing. ™

Week 19 13•May•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P7