Page 114 - RusRPTAug21

9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the grain harvest at 127.4mnt for this year – the third largest harvest in Russian history, which is nevertheless less than last year's 133.5mnt.
The top ten grain exporters increased their share in total grain exports last season to 69%, from 64% a year ago, according to Rusagrotrans.
In MY21 (finished in June), grain exports reached 50mnt (+10% y/y) with the top ten players accounting for 33mnt (+15% y/y). RIF kept its leading spot with a 16% share, followed by Aston with 11%, and MiroGroup with 10%.
Analysts see the grain harvest and exports being generally flat in MY22F, at 129.5mn tonnes and 49mn tonnes respectively. Among the key changes on the export trade, we note the introduction of the floating export tariff, that currently stands at $41.2 per tonne, or 15% of the export price (Wheat, 7-13 July). Furthermore, the government imposed export quotas in the last two seasons (17.5mnt in February-June 2021) in order to secure domestic supply. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, export quotas are to remain in place in the next few seasons, while we do not see them as materially lower than available grain volumes, fairly reflecting the domestic supply-balance, as in the last two farming years. Those measures bring stabilisation to domestic prices as well as create grounds for the further consolidation of the export trade.
114 RUSSIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com