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construction of 6-6.7 GW during the second part of the program, which is dedicated to RE construction. Enel Russia already launched its first 90MW wind park in Russia in the Rostov region. It also has a 201 MW project in the Murmansk region with capacity delivery starting next year and a 71 MW project in Stavropol Krai with operations expected to begin in 2024. The new project may have capacity of 90-110 MW given the announced c. RUB10 bn in investment.
OGK-2 reported its 2Q21 operating results 8 July. Electricity generation adjusted for the sale of Krasnoyarsk GRES increased 14.4% to 10.3mn MWh in 2Q21, and unadjusted generation volumes showed growth of 12% YoY. The generation growth by OGK-2 is in line with overall TPP generation growth in Russia of c. 10.2% YoY. Electricity consumption increased by 6.7% YoY to 247.4mn MWh in Russia during the same period. OGK-2’s unadjusted heat output dropped 16.9% YoY to 1.0mn Gcal and adjusted heat output was down 7.1% YoY in 2Q21 as the average temperature across Russia was 6.6% higher YoY in 2Q21. The strong generation results, combined with the growth in electricity prices in the European part of Russia (+16.7% YoY), could positively affect the company’s 2Q21 electricity sales revenue, we believe.
Rushydro: BigPowerNews reported that the Ministry of Energy had provided the latest draft of the terms for modernising and constructing thermal capacity in the non-pricing zones (DPM2): the Russian Far East regions, Kaliningrad region, Arkhangelsk region and Komi Republic. The document has been through the public discussion and has been provided to the respective ministries for approval. The draft defines the mechanisms of the payback for modernising and constructing thermal capacity, with the projects to be financed via the surcharge to the capacity price for consumers in the pricing zones and non-pricing zones as well. The rate of return is given as 12.5%, adjusted for the OFZ yield. According to the Ministry of Energy, approach would make it possible to optimise the burden on industrial consumers, to upgrade old and overworked equipment at thermal stations (so as to improve supply security) and to supply electricity to the second stage of the BAM project. The list of approved projects includes Khabarovskaya CHP-4, Yakustakaya GRES-2, Vladivostokskaya CHP-2, Primorskaya GRES and expansion of Neryungrinskaya GRES and Partizanskaya GRES.
Unipro reported its 2Q21 operating results 26 July. Electricity generation was up 0.6% YoY to 9.9mn MWh during the quarter.
View: UPRO’s electricity generation was up slightly in 2Q21 (+0.9% YoY). Combined with the higher electricity prices in the European part of Russia (+16.7% YoY) and stable prices in Siberia (-0.2% YoY) in 2Q21, this uptick in electricity generation could have a positive effect on the company’s revenue from electricity sales during the previous quarter.
We expect the company’s RAS results, which are set to be released tomorrow, 28 July, to be quite strong, as revenue from the capacity delivery agreements (CDA) for Berezovskaya GRES should offset the negative impact from the expiration of the CDAs for the Shaturskaya and Yaivinskaya CCGTs at YE20. Moreover, we see the strong spot prices in the first pricing zone and the c. 20% YoY increase in the KOM price in 2Q21 as contributing positively to the company’s financials. We expect weaker results in 2H21, as the CDAs for the
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