Page 38 - RusRPTAug21

3.2 Macro outlook
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 3.8% from 2.8%, the ministry said on July 9.
“The estimate for Russia’s 2021 GDP growth is 3.8% against 2.9%. The reason for the increase of the GDP forecast for 2021 is better dynamics of consumer and investment demand,” a spokesperson for the ministry told reporters.
The GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023–2024 were maintained at 3.2% and 3%, respectively.
Russia’s economy had a mild recession in 2020 (3% contraction) and has bounced back in the first quarter of this year much more strongly than expected.
Russia’s seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Russia Services Business Activity Index registered 56.5 in June, down from 57.5 in May, but still well above the 50 no-change mark, as services continue to recover from last year’s annus horribilis. The manufacturing PMI contracted slightly in June, but over all business is still growing strongly.
Russia’s labour market further extended its gains in May, as unemployment declined to 4.9% and industrial production soared in May by 11.8% from 7.6% in April, which was also revised up from the previous result of 7.2%, Rosstat said on June 24.
The economy is on the mend and will return to the pre-crisis level in July, the spokesperson said.
“Our old scenario conditions was formed in March on the basis of data for January–February, but now we have the data for March–May, and we see that
38 RUSSIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com