Page 52 - RusRPTAug21

4.5.2 Income dynamics
Real wages added +3.3% y/y in May vs. the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +5.0% y/y
Nominal wages slowed in May to +9.5% y/y from April's +13.8% y/y.
A deceleration was reported in the public sector, in which wages slowed to +1.9% y/y from the prior +13% y/y, according to our estimates.
In the private sector, wages accelerated to +13.3% y/y from the previous +12.5% y/y, reflecting May's employment gains
Non-working days put pressure on incomes, which contracted 0.1% SA m/m i May after expanding 0.8-1.4% SA m/m in February-April. Real disposable incomes were up to 6.8% y/y, accelerating to 4.5% SA q/q vs. 0.7% SA q/q in 1Q21. The recovery was supported by both formal wages and other sources of income (including entrepreneurial revenue and rent). The unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% SA in June vs. 4.9% SA in May, an inch below pre-crisis levels.
In a year when Russian GDP will increase at least 3% as the economy begins to bounce back after a difficult 2020, the benefits are not being felt by the Russian people. The Ministry of Economic Development projects that real wages will increase by 3.2% in 2021, less than they did during the height of the pandemic in 2020 and slower than the economy’s recovery after the shock caused by the annexation of Crimea and its consequences. The average employee in Russia earns 32,422 rubles ($436) monthly.
52 RUSSIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com