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4.4.3​ Retail sector dynamics
Ukraine’s retail sales grew by a healthy 10.5% y/y in real terms in 2019​, accelerating from from 5.8% y/y in 2018, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on January 21. Retail sales are being driven up by rising incomes, which were also up 10% in 2019.
Sales ahead of the holidays were particularly strong​. In December, retail jumped 12.5% y/y, or 18.7% m/m in real terms.
Regionally, the highest retail growth in 2019 occurred in the Kyiv (20.0% y/y),​ Vinnytsia (18.6% y/y), and Ternopil (17.5% y/y) regions. It was slowest in the Chernivtsi (-1.7% y/y), Chernihiv (1.4% y/y), and Zakarpattia (1.5% y/y) regions. “Apparently, a 0.2% decline of consumer prices in December helped to advance the retail sales in real terms. Intensified growth in consumer sector helps to maintain economic growth offsetting the decline in manufacturing,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.
Even before the start of the Christmas shopping season, retail sales in Kyiv were up by 20% through November,​ almost double the national average of 10.4% Adjusting for inflation, the State Statistics Service reports the fastest growing regions were: Kyiv +20%; Vinnytsia +19%; Ternopil +17%; and Luhansk +16.5%. Last year, Ukraine’s retail trade turnover was up 6% compared to 2017.
19​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com