Page 20 - UKRRptFeb20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisors
5.1​ External sector overview
Early last year China overtook Russia to become Ukraine’s biggest trade partner and it remained the top dog for the rest of the year​ ending 2019 accounting for $2.9bn of exports and a whopping $7.6bn of imports.
China displaced Russia last year as Ukraine’s top single nation trading partner,​ according to trade statistics for the first 10 months of the year. China-Ukraine trade was $10.5bn, 21% more than the Russia-Ukraine trade, which was $8.6bn. In the last weeks of the Poroshenko administration, bilateral trade sanctions were increased.
To duck sanctions, much trade between Russia and Ukraine passes through Belarus. After Germany at $7bn and Poland at $6.2bn, Belarus came in as Ukraine’s 5th largest trading partner, with $4.4bn.
Russia has been pushed into third place in the export regime by Poland
that has a more balanced trade regime accounting for $2.8bn of exports, but imports from Poland have been creeping up and were $3.4bn in November, the latest data available. In August exports to Poland were $2.2bn and imports $2.6bn.
However, despite the undeclared war with Russia in the Donbas, Russia remains a top trade partner for Ukraine and also runs a significant trade surplus in Russia’s favour: exports to Russia were $2.7bn in November against imports from Russia of $5.9bn, up from $2.1bn and $4.9bn in August respectively.
Having said that Russia’s share of UKraine’s trade has been falling steadily over the last two years from circa 10% to 6.2% in November 2019. The EU’s share in Ukrainian trade is about slightly more than 41%.
20​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com