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“Without IMF disbursements, related donor funding from the European Union and others, and non-resident inflows into the local debt market, the deficit will be difficult to finance,” says Ribakova.
There is around a total of $10bn on offer in total from Ukraine’s extended family of International Financial Institution (IFI) partners and friendly government’s, but all of this money it tied to having a working IMF deal in place.
Since the Ukrainian capital market was hooked up to international settlements and payment system Clearstream last April non-resident investors flooded into the Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance hryvnia-denominated OVDP treasury bills (OVDP) that has proven to be another very useful source of funding for the government. Last year non-resident investors pumped $4.2bn into the Ukrainian OVDP market, but since February they have been selling.
Foreign investment in Ukrainian government hryvnia bonds has dropped by almost one third since the start of the year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. Foreigners currently hold UAH78.6bn, the equivalent of $2.7bn, down 32% since January. The share of non-residents in the market has gone from a peak of 15.7% on St Valentine’s Day this year to 8.3% as of November 25 and appears to be still falling.
14 UKRAINE Country Report December 2020 www.intellinews.com