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the domestic market.
“The government will still need to raise at least $5.8bn (UAH156bn) until the end of the year. This is likely to prove impossible if the IMF doesn’t resume cooperation because the local market has no capacity to absorb such issuance,” says Sleptsova “They might go for some very expensive private “bridge financing” issues in the meantime – they have done this in the past – and that will pass the cost onto the next generation.”
Both analysts believe one of the options the government is toying with is simply turning on the printing presses to cover the domestic spending. This won’t help with settling the external debt as you can pay off dollar loans using hryvnia, but it will allow them to cover the budget deficit without tapping the IMF for more money.
On top of this the oligarchs have been pushing for a weaker hryvnia of about UAH30 to the dollar. That benefits their export orientated business, particularly metallurgy, as many of them own steel mills. Spending reserves to cover the external debt and printing hryvnia will both result in a weaker currency.
But it remains to be seen what will happen. The Ukrainian soap-opera continues.
2.3 ​Politics - misc
New coronavirus infections doubled in November, hitting an average of 16,250 a day​ at the end of November. In Kyiv, the number of new cases hit a record 1,739, Mayor Klitschko said Saturday. In Lviv, two patients, one aged 61 and the other 66, died Friday after a power outage knocked out their ventilators for one hour. Over the last eight months, 12,093 deaths are attributed to Covid-19. Immunologist Andrii Volyanskyi predicts on Facebook that another 25,000 Ukrainians will die of Covid over the next four months, the traditional peak flu season.
The first supply of COVID-19 vaccines will arrive in Ukraine not earlier than May 2021 as part of the COVAX program​, as reported by the epravda.com.ua news site on Nov. 23. The WHO-sponsored COVAX program would 20% of Ukraine’s population with the vaccine, or 8 mln doses per 4 mln people (two doses per person), while the remainder will have to buy it themselves. The first to receive the vaccine will be those at greatest risk: medical workers, senior citizens and those with chronic illnesses. The government is also negotiating with vaccine producers Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech for supplies, the results of which won’t be disclosed at the companies’ request. Ukraine’s 2021 budget has earmarked UAH 19.4 bln to buy vaccines, and has access to EUR 50 mln in costs from the European Investment Bank. That will enable the acquisition of 38 mln doses of the vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech for 19 mln citizens.
The latest diplomatic row erupted between Ukraine and Hungary this week ​after several investigations were announced by intelligence authorities into separatist activity in the Zakarpattia region, which is home to an ethnic Hungarian minority. In particular, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Dec. 1 it is investigating an incident in which the elected members of the Syurte territorial community sang the Hungarian national anthem when taking
16​ UKRAINE Country Report​ December 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com