Page 46 - RusRPTJune18

government will manage to create urgency and will to have the oil and gas giants budge.
"It is worth indicating that the amount under discussion is equivalent to around a $2/barrel increase in annual oil prices, thus the negative effect on the budget in relation to the lower-than-expected dividends payments is clearly not an issue this year given the substantial spike in oil prices," Alfa Bank commented on April 23.
In 2016 Russia faced a crisis as the hole in the budget was not RUB200bn but RUB2 trillion and had no way to finance it. In the end a 19% of Rosneft was sold in a faux privatisation that turned out to be more of a loan and the government got through the year.
Covering the dividend short fall gap will be a lot easier. The ministry could increase net domestic market borrowing by exactly RUB200bn in 2018, the RIA news agency reported on Monday, Reuters and RIA Novosti said in a separate report citing the head of the ministry's debt department Konstantin Vyshkovsky.
Another survey by RBC business portal showed that 90% of the managers of large Russian companies point to increasing presence of the state in the economy. 50% of the respondents see the state's share in the economy as "extremely high", 23% as "high", and 17% as "rather high".
Previously the Finance Ministry argued that in Central and Eastern Europe SOEs on average pay 70% dividends. It also sees uncollected dividends as representing an unjustified indirect form of state subsidy , giving state companies an unfair advantage over the private sector.
The "subsidy" for the four largest SOEs alone (Rosneft and Gazprom oil and gas giants, Sberbank and VTB bank) is estimated at RUB350bn, or 0.4% of GDP for 2016, and about RUB300bn annually in the past five years.
Russia's oil and gas sectors were a key source of tax revenues in 2017,
according to data from the Federal Tax Service (FNS).
The two extractive sectors (that also included the mining industries) provided some 29.2% of all revenue to Russia's consolidated federal budget, which includes both federal and regional budgets. That figure is up over 2016, when it reached 26.5%.
Meanwhile, increasing Mineral Extraction Tax (NDPI) returns drove some 40% of revenue growth in 2017 over 2016, or RUB2.8 trillion ($50bn).
The key dynamic at play over the last year was rising oil prices, which increased an average 25% y/y, according to Dmitri Kulikov at the domestic rating agency AKRA.
Tax revenue increases were also helped by a temporary limit on loss carryforwards, set to expire in 2020. The trend goes beyond tax revenue, with carry sectors driving industrial output as well, adds Kulikov.
“ Officials have talked a big game on structural readjustment away from hydrocarbons. Indeed, hydrocarbon revenue as a percentage of the total has
46 RUSSIA Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com