Page 48 - RusRPTJune18

6.2 Debt
Russia - Gross external debt 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017
Budget: gross debt (LC bn)
5,343 6,520 7,548 10,299 10,952 11,110 11,854
Budget: gross debt (% GDP)
10.9 11.8 13.1 15.6 15.9 12.9 12.6
source: Rosstat
On 1 April 2018 Russia's gross foreign debt stood at $524.9bn , according to preliminary estimates from the CBR. This is just 0.6% higher than the volume of debt on 1 April 2017 and is just 14% above the level of Russia's international reserves. Public debt amounted to $60.1bn on 1 April 2018, an increase of 31% y/y. However, during the same period, the external debt of Russian commercial banks decreased by 12% y/y to $105.9bn, while the debt of the non-financial sector remained almost unchanged (+0.2% y/y) at $343bn.
7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
76.54
71.21
70.88
63.81
60.60
67.50
68.45
68.87
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
67.61
64.26
63.16
60.66
56.38
59.09
58.02
57.60
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
82.32
74.38
72.15
68.13
63.27
62.88
69.22
68.81
Currency (units per USD) (average)
74.59
65.88
64.62
63.07
58.82
57.14
59.00
58.41
Russia's finance ministry is expected to buy more foreign currency in May as oil prices rise , a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The finance ministry is seen buying the equivalent of RUB300bn ($4.73bn) between May 8 and June 6, up from the RUB240.7bn ($3.79bn) it had planned to buy in the previous month, a survey of nine analysts and economists showed. In daily terms, the finance ministry is expected to buy RUB14.3bn worth of foreign currencies between May 8 and June 6, up from RUB11.5bn it said it was planning to buy every day between April 6 and May 8. The finance ministry, which started buying foreign currency early last year to beef up Russia's reserves, is expected to publish its FX purchasing plan on Monday, May 7. Urals, Russia's blend of crude oil, traded near $71 a barrel on May 3. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were at $73.62, down from their three-year highs of over $75 seen last month.
The net capital outflow from Russia exceeded the full year forecast in first four months of this year after it increased to $21bn from $17.9bn in January-April 2018 against the same period of last year, according to the preliminary estimates of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). The full year outflow forecast for this year was $19bn (set at base case scenario of $60 per barrel oil price) and almost caught up with 2017 outflow figure of $24.8bn. "In contrast to the previous year outflow was carried out mostly due to increasing foreign assets of other sectors [real sectors] with insignificant influence of the banking sector," the CBR commented, suggesting that Russian banks are
48 RUSSIA Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com