Page 3 - AfrElec Week 24

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
RENEWABLES: China joined by US as key power game changer in 2018
BP’s Statistical Review warns of rising carbon emissions, but the persistent strength of fossil fuels is the biggest brake on green development, writes Richard Lockhart
AFRICA
WHAT:
Power and carbon emissions both grew in 2018
WHY:
Chinese economic growth drove what BP called a surprising rise in power consumption growth
WHAT NEXT:
BP calls emissions growth unsustainable, but the oil majors’ strategy of prioritising gas and clean coal over renewables creates powerful competition for green energy sources
GLOBAL carbon dioxide emissions increased by 2% in 2018, the fastest growth seen since 2010, BP said in its 2018 Statistical Review, prompting a gloom-laden warning from the company that current energy trends were “unsustainable.”
In its annual snapshot of energy gures, BP executives identi ed China, India and the US as the dominant drivers of a 2.9% rise in primary global energy consumption – they together accounted for around two thirds of this increase – as well as pushing up emissions.
Africa’s gures were similarly lacklustre, with CO2 emissions growing by 2.4% and renewa- bles accounting for just 3.7% of power demand, despite an 18.5% rise in green power output.
In terms of industrial sectors, power genera- tion was also picked out as being the least able to reduce emissions, despite the expansion of green power sources such as solar and wind.
It was a year for records. In the US, primary energy demand grew by 3.5%, the fastest growth seen for 30 years and in sharp contrast to the declining trend seen over the previous 10 years.
On a global scale, the 2.9% rise in primary energy consumption was almost double the 10-year average of 1.5%, and the fastest since 2010.
e US contributed 15% of global emissions, with China creating 28% and India 7%, making them the world’s three stand-out polluters.
Power growth
As well as concerns about emissions, the report highlighted that global power demand grew by 3.7%, which is one of the strongest growth rates seen for 20 years, absorbing around half of the growth in primary energy.
e developing world continued to drive the vast majority (81%) of this growth, led by China and India who together accounted for around two thirds of the increase in power demand.
The particularly strong growth of power demand in 2018 also owed much to the US, where power demand grew by a bumper 3.7%, boosted by weather e ects.
Overall, however, industrialisation and elec- tri cation in the developing world, dominated by India and China is driving growing primary energy growth.
Meanwhile, consumption of renewable energy grew by 14.5%, but this still accounted for only around a third of the increase in total power generation. Coal and gas accounted for roughly a third each.
In the renewables sector, net additions of solar and wind capacity were worth a combined 140GW,whilenetgrowthingenerationrosefor solar to 130 TWh but actually fell for wind to 140 TWh from 170 TWh in 2017.
What this means is that wind and solar are expanding, but on a global scale they are nding it di cult to win market share from coal and gas
In Africa
In Africa, the Review found that primary energy consumption grew by 2.9%, as did electricity demand. Crucially, power demand growth was slightly below the 10-year average of 3.1%, and also failed to keep pace with the 3.7% global growth rate. Falling consumption in black out- hit South Africa was the main driver of this slightly slower growth.
Gas enjoyed the largest share of the generat- ing mix with 40%, followed by coal (30%) and hydro (15%). Renewables stood at just 3.7%, although electricity generating from renewables posted the fastest growth rate of 18.5%.
ese gures illustrate how African power generation is dominated by South Africa, where coal is king, and North Africa, where natural gas dominated. Hydro is predominant in Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia and a number of other coun- tries with large river resources.
Gas and coal’s leadership meant that the con- tinent’s CO2 emissions grew by 2.4%, slightly above the 10-year average of 2.3% and above the 2018 global average of 2%. Algeria (6%) and Morocco (4.6%) were the worst culprits.
As such, Africa can be regarded as perform- ing less well than some industrialised areas of the world in e orts to cut emissions.
Africa’s population grew by 2.5% in 2018, while GDP expanded by 3.3%, indicating that both primary energy consumption and power demand are growing roughly in line with pop- ulations and the economy.
Although it is growing at the most rapid rate, renewables is still failing to make inroads on a
The US contributed 15% of global emissions, with China creating 28% and India 7%, making them the world’s three stand-out polluters.
Week 24 19•June•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m
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