Page 4 - AfrElec Week 24

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
continent-wide scale and is failing to make any inroads into emissions growth.
Just two countries, South Africa and Egypt, accounted for 456 TWh, or 53%, of Africa’s total power output of 854 TWh.
Even excluding these two giants, renewables accounted for just 16 TWh (4%) of the remain- ing output of 397 TWh. Hydro (118 TWh, 30%) and natural gas (176 TWh, 42%) were the two most used fuel sources.
is means the renewables sector has much work to do to help the 600 million Africans currently without access to power, according to African Development Bank (AfDB) gures.
With small-scale green projects dominating, the key task is for renewables win market share and to upscale technology to utility levels.
In greater detail
BP group chief economist Spencer Dale noted that renewables grew by 14.5%, contributing around a third of the total power growth; fol- lowed by coal (3% growth) and gas (3.9%).
China continued to lead the way in expand- ing renewables, accounting for 45% of the global growth in renewables generation.
Yet rising power consumption across the board means that the green growth cannot out- pace established fossil fuels.
Dale said that the fuel mix remains “depress- ingly flat,” as the shares of both non-fossil fuels (36%) and coal (38%) in 2018 remained unchanged from their levels 20 years ago.
e report noted how power generation has failed to reduce its carbon intensity.
Dale said that the report found that emissions from the power sector are estimated to have increased by 2.7% in 2018, their highest rate of growth for seven years, accounting for around half of the growth in global carbon emissions.
Dale noted that for much of the past 20 years, changes in the carbon intensity of the power sec- tor have been relatively small (or even negative). This means that increases in power demand
driven by economic growth are often fed through directly into higher carbon emissions.
is can be termed electri cation without decarbonisation. In other words, electri cation is doing little to reduce GHG emissions.
“ e robust growth in power demand, par- ticularly in the developing world, greatly adds to the di culty of decarbonising the power sector. You have to run very fast just to stand still,” said Dale
Reasons
Both energy demand and carbon emissions grew at their fastest rates for years.
e report gave one simple reason for this, and one more nuanced explanation. e simple reason was a large number or hot or cold days throughout the year, pushing up energy demand in the largest economies. e more nuanced was an unexpected recovery in Chinese economic activity.
BP CEO Bob Dudley commented that, “this is not a race to renewables, but a race to reduce carbon emissions across many fronts,” stress- ing the strategy of BP and indeed other Big Oil companies.
Indeed, Dudley’s focus on cutting emissions through a variety of strategies in di erent parts of the energy industry, rather than simply push- ing renewables, is a key take away from this year’s Review.
e report concluded that promoting renew- ables is not su cient to reduce emissions across the energy sector, and that a range of technolo- gies and fuels is required.
BP was silent on climate change, and favours pushing ahead with what could be termed cleaner fossil fuels – gas and clean coal technol- ogy – rather than non-fossil fuels.
is is the view that nearly all governments – notably excluding the current US administra- tion – international organisations and the green lobby have to face as they push for more renew- able energy across the globe. ™
Emissions from the power sector are estimated to have increased by 2.7% in 2018, their highest rate of growth for seven years
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Week 24 19•June•2019