Page 18 - UKRRptAug18

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy 2.3% -14.8% 4.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% -6.6% -9.8% 2.3% 2.2%
Household consumption, chg 11.8% -14.9% 7.1% 15.7% 11.7% 7.7% -9.6% -20.2% 4.5% 4.0% yoy
Investments in fixed capital, 1.6% -50.5% 3.9% 7.1% 0.9% -6.7% -23.0% -9.3% 6.0% 12.0% chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy -5.2% -21.9% 11.2% 8.0% -0.7% -4.3% -10.1% -13.0% 2.1% -0.1%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln 948 913 1,079 1,300 1,405 1,465 1,567 1,979 2,351 2,755
Nominal GDP, USD bln 180 117 136 163 176 183 132 91 93 98
GDP per capita, USD 3,891 2,550 2,972 3,580 3,865 4,030 2,904 1,996 1,991 2,314
CPI (eop) 22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.6% -0.2% 0.5% 24.9% 43.3% 12.4% 13.7%
CPI average 25.2% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 0.6% -0.3% 12.1% 48.7% 14.9% 14.5%
Unemployment (ILO 6.9% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2% 7.8% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.3% methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors, World Bank
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s GDP increased 3.2% y/y in the second quarter of 2018, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates in the second quarter of 2018 inflation report published on the NBU web site on July 19. This growth was driven by domestic consumer and investment demand. The NBU report also cited the factor of a low comparative base in 2Q17, when economic activities with Ukraine’s uncontrolled territories were halted.
The central bank reiterated its forecast for GDP growth of 3.4% y/y in 2018 and 2.9 y/y% in 2020. At the same time, it revised downward its projection for GDP in 2019 to 2.5% y/y growth from 2.9% y/y.
The NBU improved its projection for core inflation in 2018 to 7.1% y/y (from 7.7% y/y in the previous report), while keeping unchanged its forecast for consumer inflation at 8.9% y/y.
The inflation report also reflected the downward revision of gross international reserves at end-2018 to $20.7bn from $21.6bn, which was reported earlier while announcing the increase of the NBU’s key policy rate by 0.5pp to 17.5%.
The NBU is being consistent with promoting the idea that the current tight monetary policy will have a negative impact on economic growth in 2019.
18 UKRAINE Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com