Page 19 - UKRRptAug18

Therefore, the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 was revised downward in line with the regulator’s decision to hike the key policy rate last week.
So far, the NBU’s projections are based on the assumption that Ukraine will secure the next IMF loan tranche of around $1.9bn by the end of 2018. Should this fail, we are likely to see a significant deterioration in the forecast in the NBU’s inflation report in October.
NBU expects accelerated economic growth in the second quarter of 2018.
The NBU expects a moderate acceleration in the growth of the Ukrainian economy and stable growth in investment activity in the second quarter of 2018. Further increase in consumer demand will be facilitated by increased income of the population (including through military pensions, wages and remittances). NBU’s press service says. In the first quarter of 2018 , the economy accelerated growth to 3.1% on an annual basis. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP growth was 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Actual growth rates of real GDP in the first quarter of 2018 were higher than the NBU’s expectation of 2.3% in the Inflation Report for April 2018.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the country’s economic growth rate to reach 3-3.5% this year , the Director of its Financial Stability Department Vitaly Vavrishchuk has announced, Ukrinform reports. "We would like these rates to be higher, especially given the significant decline in the production output during the crisis period. The economy needs new impulses, and such impulses could be structural and institutional reforms, which are incorporated in the program of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Therefore, we want this program to be resumed," Vavrishchuk said.
19 UKRAINE Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com