Page 21 - UKRRptAug18

GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 36.4 37.1 40.7 52.9 72.6 81.3 84.9
Current account balance (% of -6.3 -8.2 -9.2 -3.5 -0.2 -3.7 -5.2 GDP)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 77.6 76.5 79.3 95.2 131.5 142.9 142.5
EUR/LCY (avg) 11 10 11 16 24 30 31
Source: national sources, wiiw, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (UAH mn)
Jan-Sep 2017
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
2.18
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
/
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
1,754,681
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
297,406
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
1,035,476
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
1,146,747
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output growth slowed to 2.2% year-on-year in June
following a 2.5% y/y growth in May amid a continuing decline in mining and slower growth in manufacturing and utilities, the Ukrstat state statistics service reported on July 23.
Seasonally adjusted output inched up 0.2% month-on-month in June. In January-June, industrial output increased 2.5% y/y (vs. 2.6% y/y growth in January-May).
Growth in machinery decelerated to 4.8% y/y in June (from 7.0% y/y in May), while chemicals decelerated to 30.3% y/y (37.4% y/y in May). Growth in manufacturing stood at 2.8% y/y in June (vs 3.2% y/y in May). Mining production declined 0.4% y/y (after a 1.9% /y decline in May) due to a 0.4% y/y decline in oil and gas production.
The food industry grew 0.7% y/y in June (vs 0.5% y/y in May). Meanwhile, output in metallurgy jumped 3.3% y/y after a 1.2% y/y decline in May. The growth of utilities slowed to 4.8% y/y (from 8.6% y/y in May).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes that the fall in mining and weak food industry growth are dragging down the overall industry result. "So far, it looks like even a good harvest will not boost the food industry enough to improve industrial performance significantly in the second half of 2018," she wrote in a note on July 24. "That said, our forecast of industrial growth of 4.6% y/y in 2018 is a subject for downward revision."
21 UKRAINE Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com