Page 6 - CE Outlook Regions 2022

worst in the region.

With their voters frustrated by the continuing COVID-19 restrictions and the
soaring cost of living, both radical right-wing governments have tried to

divert attention by reviving fears over migration. This has had diminishing
success – the influx of several thousand refugees from Belarus to Poland
last year seems to have done little to boost PiS support. Now both

governments are turning more to cultural issues such as abortion and
homosexuality to whip up support, which is bringing them once again into
conflict with EU values.

Opposing them, civic organisations have led huge protests and opposition

parties have forged wide coalitions, usually led by centre-right parties (with
the region’s left-wing parties out of power and marginalised).

The Slovak opposition mobilised to oust left-wing populist Robert Fico in
2020, and the Czech opposition joined in two coalitions of the centre-right

and the centre to defeat ‘technocratic populist’ Andre Babis at the 2021
election. Poland’s opposition parties may form centre-right and left-wing

coalitions ahead of the general election there in 2023. Meanwhile in
Hungary, after three election defeats the opposition has finally united and
will fight April’s election under one list and one candidate for premier, the
liberal conservative Peter Marki-Zay.

Orban is currently ahead in the opinion polls ahead of the April 3 general
election, which will be fought on a very crooked playing field, with a
gerrymandered electoral system, as well as a great imbalance of campaign
funding and media coverage. If Orban wins a fourth consecutive term, this

will likely embolden him to become even more obstructive towards the EU;
if he is defeated, this would mark a dramatic political shift in the region

back to liberal democratic values.

Poland could also have an exciting political year if Kaczynski’s PiS calls –
or is forced to call – early elections as its coalition crumbles. At the
moment it too is ahead in the opinion polls, but in both countries the

political mood could change as the cost of living crisis worsens and the
pandemic drags into a third year.

Nevertheless, populism – whether of the right, centre or left – remains a
powerful force in the region, and it could even mount a return in some

countries that have already shaken it off.

The Slovak coalition is also looking fragile as the split between the two
right-wing populist parties and their centre-right partners widens, though it

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