Page 134 - RusRPTJan21

Setting maximum retail and wholesale prices for sugar (RUB 36/kg and RUB 45/kg) and sunflower oil (RUB 95/l and RUB 110/l).
The introduction of an export quota and tariff on grain commodities (wheat, barley, corn, rye). This is to include a wheat export tariff of EUR 25/t (some RUB 2,200/t), for exports from 15 February 2021 until 30 June 2021, and be effective in terms of the proposed grain export quota (17.5mnt), which covers wheat, barley, corn and rye. For the latter three commodities, the export tariff is zero, but would be 50% of the customs value, although no less than EUR 100/t, if the quota is exceeded.
Setting an export tariff on sunflower seeds. It is to be 30% in 1H21 (6.5% now) but not less than EUR 165/t (EUR 9.75/t).
For more details on these measures, see our Rusagro - Potential price caps for sugar and sunflower oil, of 11 December.
Export prices for sunflower oil were up 55% YoY to USD 1,080/t in SeptemberNovember, reflecting favourable demand for vegetable oils globally, and ongoing recovery from bottom of the cycle reached in March. Last season that completed in August, Russia exported 3.7mnt of sunflower oil, which accounted for 64% of domestic production and 5% of global exports for vegetable oils.
In our 2021F model, Rusagro sees a 50% and 30% contribution of the vegetable oil business into revenues and EBITDA; it has been the company’s core segment since the acquisition of SolPro. We anticipate final implementation details of the aforementioned pricing limitations, but they represent downside risks for Rusagro’s profitability outlook.
134 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ January 2021 www.intellinews.com