Page 19 - UKRRptNov19

high owing to an increase in real household income - wages, pensions and remittances from abroad. Capital investment will continue to expand rapidly, which will also provide significant support to the economy, the NBU added.
Economic growth will be dampened by weak global economic activity and a decrease in gas transits to "European countries starting in 2020, due to the construction of bypassing gas pipelines," the statement reads.
3.2 Macro outlook
The IMF forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 3% this year and by 3% next year. By comparison, of the 27 nations of the IMF’s ‘Advanced Europe’ area, only two are to grow more than 3% in 2020: Ireland -- 3.5%; and Malta – 4.3%. In the 10 nations of ‘Emerging and Developing Europe,’ Ukraine would be in 4th place -- behind Serbia -- 4%; Romania --3.5%; Hungary -- 3.3%; and Bulgaria –3 .2%.
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved on Oct. 23 an updated macroeconomic forecast with GDP growth of 3.7% in 2020, Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk told a press briefing following its weekly meeting. Previously, the government expected GDP to increase 3.3% y/y in 2020. The forecast of GDP growth for 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged at 3.8% y/y and 4.1% y/y, respectively.
Honcharuk stressed the government defined these forecasts as “conservative” and noted that its “optimistic” forecast sees GDP growth at 4.8% y/y in 2020, 5.5% y/y in 2021 and 6.5% y/y in 2022. The optimistic scenario is attainable in the case of “real corruption fighting”, Honcharuk noted.
The government also improved its forecast of consumer inflation, expecting 5.5% YTD in 2020 (vs. 6.0% YTD previously), 5.3% YTD in 2021 (vs. 5.7% YTD previously) and 5.1% YTD in 2022 (vs. 5.3% YTD previously). The
19 UKRAINE Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.com