Page 18 - UKRRptNov19

3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP , chg yoy
2008 2009 2010 2011
2.3% -14.8% 4.1% 5.2%
2012
2013
2014 2015 2016
2017
Householdconsumption, 11.8% -14.9% 7.1% 15.7% 8.4% chg yoy
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy Nominal GDP , UAH bln Nominal GDP, USD bln GDP per capita, USD CPI(eop)
CPIaverage
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors
1.6% -50.5%
-5.2% -21.9% 948 913 180 117 3,891 2,550
3.9% 7.1%
11.2% 8.0% 1,079 1,300 136 163 2,972 3,580
5.0%
-0.7% 1,405 176 3,865
18.2% 14.3% -4.3% -10.1% -13.0% 2.8% 0.4% 1.1%
1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,983 3,559 183 134 91 93 112 131 4,030 3,117 2,134 2,193 2,638 3,077 0.5% 24.9% 43.3% 12.4% 13.7% 9.8%
-0.3% 12.1% 48.7% 13.9% 14.4% 10.90%
22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.6% -0.2% 25.2% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 0.6% 6.9% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2%
7.8% 9.7% 9.5%
9.7%
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
0.2%
0.0%
6.9% -8.3% -20.7% 1.8%
-6.7% -24.0% -9.2% 20.1%
Ukraine’s GDP growth probably cooled to 3.4% in the third quarter, down from 4.6% in the second quarter, estimates ICU investment bank. This would make for a 3.5% y/y growth for the first nine months of the year. Growth rates cooled for retail, construction and passenger transport, while industrial production continued its gradual decline. ICU writes: “Despite some slowdown in the real sectors of the economy, consumer confidence in 3Q19 was at the highest level since 2008, which should have boosted the services sector. Hence, we estimate real GDP growth to be close to 3.4% y/y in 3Q19.”
Ukrainian Finance Minister Oksana Markarova sees economic growth at 3% year-on-year in 2019, she said in an interview with the RFE/RL on October 2.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk expects that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 5% in 2020, and over the next five years the government will ensure that the economy grows by "at least 40%".
The rating agency S&P Global Ratings has recently revised Ukraine’s sovereign rating upwards to B and improved its forecast for growth in 2019 from 2.5% to 3.2%, expecting it to stabilise at 3% in the next three years.
On July 19, the NBU revised its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3% y/y compared with its April macroeconomic forecast of 2.5% y/y.
The NBU also revised its 2020 economic growth forecast to 3.2% y/y from 2.9%. The revisions were attributed to "stronger domestic demand, more favourable terms of trade and expectations of a larger harvest of grain crops".
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth over the coming years. Private consumption growth will decelerate, albeit remaining
18 UKRAINE Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.com
-6.6% -9.8% 2.3%
2.5% 3.3%
7.8% 8.9%
2.70% 4.90%
7.00% 2.50% 4,021 146 3,336 7.10% 8.20%
8.00%
9.9% 9.1%
2018E 2019E