Page 12 - FSUOGM Week 49

Persuade, invade, blockade: what is Beijing's best strategy to

reunify Taiwan?

A few months ago a poll of Taiwanese voters revealed that popular desire for
independence from China is hardening: 54% of respondents wanted early independence,
while only 12.5% wanted unification with Beijing. Hardening attitudes in Taiwan reflect
hardening attitudes in Beijing, where President Xi (actually Chairman Xi, but let’s skip
that detail) has unequivocally and repeatedly declared his intention to achieve
unification, probably before he retires, whenever that might be.

The approach of what looks like an unstoppable force towards an immovable object has
turned the spotlight onto the military options open to Beijing – options anticipated and
authorised by Article 8 of China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law, which states that if Taiwan
will not unify peacefully it must (the Law says “shall”, not “may”) be unified by force of
arms.

Taiwan lives entirely on imported energy, importing 1mn barrels per day of oil and 2bn
cubic metres of gas per month. War with China would be a disaster.

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