Page 27 - UKRRptFeb19

Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 116.9 135.2 135.3 99.9 81.4 78.3 84.8
Nominal GDP per capita (EUR) 2,573 2,987 3,341 2,332 1,904 1,737 1,994
Real GDP (% yoy) 5.5 0.2 0 -6.6 -9.8 2.3 2.0
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 8 0.6 -0.2 12.1 48.7 14.9 14.5
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 8.7 8.2 7.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.3
General budget balance (% of -1.8 -3.8 -4.4 -4.9 -2.3 -3.5 -3 GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 36.4 37.1 40.7 52.9 72.6 81.3 84.9
Current account balance (% of -6.3 -8.2 -9.2 -3.5 -0.2 -3.7 -5.2 GDP)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 77.6 76.5 79.3 95.2 131.5 142.9 142.5
EUR/LCY (avg) 11 10 11 16 24 30 31
Source: national sources, wiiw, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (UAH mn)
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
2.18
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
2,640
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
2,592,546
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
474,133
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
1,430,790
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
1,607,035
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Industrial output in Ukraine dropped 0.9% y/y in November after growing 1.4% in October. Over 11m18, it was up 1.6% y/y. The slump in November was mostly due to manufacturing, which was down 2.5% y/y versus a 1.0% gain in October. In 11m18, it was up 1.2% y/y.
Several manufacturing subsectors declined in November, including the largest ones - food products (which includes beverages and tobacco; down 0.8%), metals (down 5.3%) and engineering (down 4.0%). Chemical production posted the largest y/y drop, decreasing by 26.4%. Plastic and rubber output
27 UKRAINE Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com