Page 25 - UKRRptFeb19

Meanwhile, the contribution of trade (6.2% y/y growth) and construction (8.7% y/y growth) to overall economic growth increased. The GDP deflator amounted to 16.1% (vs. 17% in the second quarter).
"The weak performance of manufacturing -Ukraine’s largest production sector - dampened overall economic growth," Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on December 20. "We expect GDP growth to have accelerated in the fourth quarter, mostly due to better results in agriculture stipulated by a record-high grain crop."
Consumption will remain strong, but cooling investment and the negative contribution of the external sector will restrain GDP growth. Due to this weak manufacturing performance, GDP growth is not likely to reach 3.3% y/y, as we initially expected, she added, downgrading estimates for 2018 GDP growth to 3.1% y/y.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its GDP forecast for 2018 from 3.5 y/y to 3.3% y/y, according to the multinational statement e-mailed to bne IntelliNews o n December 19.
At the top of that, the Fund revised downwards its GDP growth forecast for 2020 from 3.4% y/y to 3% y/y. The growth forecast for 2019 remained unchanged at 2.7%.
25 UKRAINE Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com