Page 24 - UKRRptFeb19

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.50%
3.40%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
7.80%
6.10%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
18.20%
12.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.40%
3.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2 983
3516
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2 638
3086
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
13.70%
8.90%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.40%
11.90%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.50%
8.80%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July-September or 0.4% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, the nation's state statistics service reported on December 19, confirming its preliminary estimate released in November.
Private consumption surged 9.7% y/y in the third quarter, accelerating from 4.2% y/y growth in the previous quarter. At the same time, public consumption declined 6.7% y/y in July-September, slowing from a 11.2% y/y surge in the second quarter.
Investment rose 9.7% y/y in July-September, slowing from 14.2% y/y growth in the second quarter. The impact of net exports was negative with real exports declining 5.2% y/y and real imports growing 5.1% y/y.
On the production side, the weaker GDP growth in the third quarter was mostly due to slower value-added growth in agriculture (3% y/y in the third quarter vs. 19.3% y/y in the second quarter) and manufacturing (1% y/y in July-September vs. 2% y/y in the second quarter).
24 UKRAINE Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com