Page 107 - RusRPTSept21

8.3.2 Dividends dynamics
The Dividend Basket of top dividend payers in the Russian equity universe carries a 12-month dividend yield (DY) of 23.4%, maintaining its record-high level, the latest Dividend Basket overview by BCS Global Markets shows. In the past 12 months, the basket has beaten the market by 25 percentage points.
As followed by bne IntelliNews, Russia’s dividend season is underway and the country’s leading corporates continue to pay out the world’s highest dividend yields.
The top dividend basket is now composed of NLMK and Severstal metals majors, Magnit retailer, Alrosa diamond major and Phosagro phosphate fertiliser major, which replaced the preferred shares of Surgutneftegas oil dinosaur.
The sector-diversified basket includes NLMK, Phosagro and Alrosa, and new additions of Lukoil oil major and M.Video electronics retailer.
"Phosagro is now benefiting from record high fertiliser prices compared to the last several years, which allows it to earn a significantly larger amount of cash vs mid-cycle period," BCS GM commented. The analysts warned that seasonal correction in phosphate prices could affect the company.
The stabilisation of the ruble rate has affected the preferred shares of SurgutNG after the passage of its recent ex-div date, which saw the payout of its 4th "super-dividend" in the last 7 years of some 14%. Now BCS GM's forward-looking dividend forecast for 2021 is 7% yield, but the dividend of the company remains "highly sensitive to one’s year-end RUB/$ assumption".
Lukoil is now expected to pay a DY of 12% in 2021, based on a surge in free cash flow (FCF) coming from recovering global oil prices, rising production as OPEC+ restrictions are slowly lifted, and a very strong showing in 1Q21.
"We also add shares of M.Video to this Basket – the company’s strategy is perfectly exposed to e-commerce growth, COVID-driven changes in lifestyle, including remote work, and a boom in the developers’ market," BCS GM commented, expecting a DY of 12%.
● Oil & gas
Board of Directors of Rosneft has recommended paying interim dividends of RUB18.03/share (RUB191bn or $2.6bn in total) for the first half of 2021. The AGM in absentia is scheduled for 30 September. The dividends record date is 11 October 2021. The announced number translates
107 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com