Page 108 - RusRPTSept21

into a 3.3% interim DY, we calculate, and is in line with our expectation of RUB18/share dividend for 1H21, which is based on a payout of 50% of IFRS net income (see our Rosneft – 2Q21 IFRS; strong but below our forecast though purchases, of 16 August). We therefore treat this news as neutral for the company's share price.
Gazprom’s RUB 845bn dividend base was reiterated in its presentation, implying a dividend of RUB 17.85/share. Head of Department 816 Alexander Ivannikov said that given the 1H21 results and an implied dividend of close to RUB 18/share, the dividend for FY21 should be no less than RUB 36/share. Mr. Ivannikov added that Gazprom traditionally yields around 6-7%, implying a valuation of RUB 460-470/share.
The Novatek BoD has recommended a 1H21 DPS of R27.67 (R276.7/GDR). The record date is October 11. Based on the company's adjusted net income in 1H21 (which was up 120% y/y) and its new dividend policy (calling for at least 50% of adjusted net income to be distributed), we had expected a R27.3/share dividend for 1H21. The BoD recommendation translates into 51% of adjusted net income. We assume that the company decided to adjust the payout ratio for the 1% treasury stake. We consider this recommendation slightly positive. The implied semiannual dividend yield is 1.6%.
● Metal & Mining
Evraz has reported positive 1H21 earnings, as the 1H21 dividend exceeded our estimates by 7% and was 1.2pp above the Russian steel average. The coking coal division EBITDA surprised us on the upside in 1H21 despite lower volumes, and the management confirmed plans to demerge the asset by December. Strong coking coal and steel prices in 3Q21 – 20-25% above 2Q21 so far – suggest much stronger EBITDA and FCFE HoH despite export duties, on our numbers. We incorporate into our model a slower decline in steel prices in 2H21F and 2022F and reiterate our Buy recommendation, based on an unchanged 12-month Target Price of GBp 1,000/share.
Alrosa's Supervisory Board recommended distributing 100% of the 1H21 FCF as dividends (RUB 64.7bn), paying RUB 8.79/share. Subject to EGM approval, the dividend record date is set to be 19 October 2021.
LSR’s 1H21 dividends are likely not be distributed due to challenging market conditions, while the company is also conducting a buyback for 10% of its share capital (RUB 780/share, around RUB 8bn)
● Other
108 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com