Page 130 - RusRPTSept21

Economic Development.
· The emissions reduction will be driven by the absorption capacity of forests (this is to allow a net emissions reduction of 25%, from 1.58mnt in 2019 to 1.19mnt in 2050) and a reduction in the power sector (which is to face a drop from 936mnt to 629mnt in the base case).
· No emissions reduction is expected for the M&M, transport and agriculture sectors, which are likely to face growth.
· Only one scenario out of four (inertial, base, intensive and aggressive) has a CO2 price in it, and this is not the base case.
· There are no plans for carbon neutrality.
· In the base case, electricity consumption in Russia reaches 1.48tn
kWh by 2050, which is 38% higher than in 2019. The growth is to be associated “with the electrification of transport and other sectors of the economy." The share of TPPs in generation is set to decrease to 53% (from 62.3% in 2019), while the share of nuclear power plants increases from 20% at present to 24%, and the share of HPPs remains at 17%. MinEconomy also wants to build new energy capacities “based on carbon-free generation”.
From the details provided, it seems as though the plans to reduce Russian emissions remain relatively unambitious, with no carbon neutrality, and no major reduction in emissions from industries with the focus on absorption capacity (which is currently not recognised by the international community as a tool for cutting emissions), while CO2 payments only appear in one of the scenarios. The latter, though, is still a major difference from the previous draft of the strategy, which did not have any CO2 pricing at all.
Vedomosti reported on Sunday 22 August that the Ministry for Economic Development had proposed fines for not fulfilling the rules of climate regulation for large emitters. The ministry suggested fining companies for not providing GHG emissions data or for violating the order of this disclosure. The fines come in two stages, with the sum to double for repetitions. According to the draft, officials are to pay 50,000 to 75,000 rubles for the first violation, and individual entrepreneurs from 100,000 to 250,000 rubles, while legal entities have to pay from 100,000 to 500,000 rubles. The maximum fine for repeat violation is to be RUB150,000 for officials, RUB500,000 for individual entrepreneurs and RUB1mn for legal entities. The draft also envisages that the system of penalties will be in effect from the moment when organisations begin to submit reports: for emitters of CO2 emissions in excess of 150,000t from 2023, and for emitters of CO2 emissions in excess of 50,000t from 2025. The ministry plans to submit this draft for public discussion. Business representatives consider the proposal to be overly severe and premature. This opinion is shared by UC Rusal, according to its representative, while Severstal noted that it was verifying emissions and used international standards, which
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