Page 51 - RusRPTSept21

4.5.2 Income dynamics
Real disposable income in Russia in 2Q21 increased by 6.8% year on year after a 3.7% decline seen in 1Q21, according to the latest data from RosStat statistics agency.
As followed by bne IntelliNews, most recently the Ministry of Economic Development improved its outlook on income growth. At the same time, analysts suggested that recovering incomes could support GDP recovery through consumption amid waning contribution of lockdown savings and higher interest rates.
The low base effect was expected to give a bump to income dynamics in 2Q21. As a result, in 1H21 overall real disposable income went up by 1.7% y/y. The Ministry of Economic Development expects the indicator to increase by 3% in 2021.
Alfa Bank's chief economist Natalia Orlova commented to RBC business portal that high inflation has kept real income dynamics from posting an even faster recovery in 2Q21.
However, as compared to pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) 2Q19, real disposable income would still be lower by 0.8% in 2Q21, albeit improving from -1.9% in the previous quarter, VTB Capital (VTBC) commented, expecting the income to
51 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com