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value-added. The influx in tourists, who stayed for longer periods and paid inflated prices, added RUB201bn ($3bn), 1.5 times the initial forecast. On average, countries that host the World Cup experience a 14% increase in tourism in the following five years. Russia’s Association of Tour Operators predicts a 20% increase to 30mn foreigners in 2019.
3.2 Macro outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded the forecast for Russia's growth to 1.8% in 2019, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on October 9. At the same time, IMF expects Russia's inflation to stay at the level of 2.8% due to tight monetary policy.
The latest Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) forecast for Russia , which covers the 2018–2020 period, sees GDP growth this year remaining below 2%, with growth slowing next year to around 1.5% as long as the oil price (Brent crude) stays reasonably close to its current level of about $75 a barrel. Growth will remain slow in coming years as there is little indication that Russia will move ahead with market-friendly systemic reforms that are necessary to foster higher growth.
Economic growth in Russia is expected to hold steady at 1.5 per cent this year and into 2019 as the positive impact of higher oil prices is offset by the negative economic consequences of sanctions imposed by the United States of America and the European Union (EU), said the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
28 RUSSIA Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com