Page 29 - RusRPTNov18

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
471,337 496,982 428,573 276,240 280,350 342,294 58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697 527,266 497,834 343,543 285,772 357,816 102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
317,177 314,967 286,669 182,719 182,347 227,502 54,820
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Russia's industrial output growth continued to slow in September 2018, down to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.7% seen in August and 3.9% in July, the latest data by Rosstat statistics agency release on October 16 shows. The industrial growth for 3Q18 slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.2% in 2Q18, amounting to 3% y/y in January-September 2018.
The growth in September was largely supported by expanding extraction. "Significant improvements can be seen in the output of crude oil, which expanded on the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase volumes in September-December," VTB Capital commented on October 16.
Mining and quarrying output growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y, driven by faster growth in oil production that increased to 4.9% y/y.
At the same time manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in September compared with 2.2% y/y growth the month before, showing negative dynamics for the first time since December 2017. Manufacturing was still up 2.2% y/y in 3Q18 and 3.3% y/y in January-September.
Sberbank CIB attributed the decline in manufacturing to calendar (September has one fewer working day) and high base effect, as manufacturing output rose 5.6% y/y last year. VTB also attributed negative manufacturing dynamics to calendar effects.
"We think the y/y dynamics of manufacturing and industrial production in general will improve in 4Q18, supported by a low-base effect (industrial production shrank 1.6% y/y in 4Q17)," Sberbank forecasts.
UralSib Capital also expects a "notable improvement in the manufacturing dynamics" in the coming months, but conditions it by the US Congress not passing tougher sanctions against Russia after November.
29 RUSSIA Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com