Page 40 - RusRPTNov18

5.0 External Sector & Trade 5.1 External sector overview
Thanks to rising oil prices it is on course to turn in a record current account surplus north of $100bn.
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reported that the current account surplus reached a whopping $75.8bn in 9M18, up from $19.7bn in 9M17, and $49.4bn in the first half of 2018, implying a surplus of $26bn in the third quarter of the year. The trade surplus reached $136.3bn in 9M18, while capital outflows from the private sector came in at $31.9bn, with $19.2bn of outflows registered in the third quarter. The combined outflow from the private and public sectors reached $40.2bn over 9M18.
Alexander Isakov, chief economist at VTB Capital, said in a note: “The CBR’s balance of payments report for 3Q18 is remarkable in two ways. First, financial flows showed the largest single quarterly decline in the external liabilities of the non-financial sector since 4Q14. However, the structure of the decline is different this time, as most of it is a reduction in debt related to FDIs vs. loans in 2014. Second, the report sets the FY18 current account surplus on course to break 2008’s record of $104bn.”
VTB has updated its estimate of the current account surplus for 2018, which now stands at a new record high of $113bn and exceeding the CBR’s projection of $98bn-99bn published in its recent monetary policy report by around $15bn.
40 RUSSIA Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com