Page 43 - RusRPTNov18

5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
The recovery of Russian imports from a deep slump in 2014–2016 slowed this spring , dragged down by ruble depreciation (first-half import growth this year was 6% y/y).
Russian imports are still ignore the depreciation of the ruble. According to the Federal Customs, imports from non-CIS countries (a proxy to total imports) declined by 1.6% y/y to $17.2bn in September. Bankers estimate that the total imports reached $19.3-19.5bn, which is relatively flat y/y. However, in September 2017 the RUB was much stronger (57.7 vs 67.6 per $). Thus, import developments are ignoring weak economic activity and RUB depreciation. Imports share in nominal RUB-denominated GDP increased from 14% to 15.5%, according to Raiffeisen Bank (RZB).
Russia and Kazakhstan for 8 months of 2018 increased trade by 8.3%, to $11bn , according to Director of the department of international cooperation of the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan Kairat Torebaev. "In general, trade turnover with Russia is quite good, last year our trade increased by 25%. This year, only in 8 months, we increased it by 8.3% and reached over $11bn," he said. For 8 months of 2017, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Russia grew by 31% and amounted to $10bn.
Imports are expected to recover at roughly 5% pace in the next few years
as the ruble’s real effective exchange rate (REER) is assumed to remain rather stable.
The rapid growth in Russian export volumes (mainly non-energy goods and services) is expected to slow , even if the relatively low REER supports export growth. The outlook for growth in Russian energy exports is tame, says BOFIT.
Russia and India can reach the $30bn bilateral trade target earlier than expected , President Vladimir Putin said following the talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday. According to President Putin, both leaders are prioritizing the expansion of trade and investment cooperation between their two countries. "We set out to boost trade turnover to $30bn by 2025 and mutual investments to $15bn some time ago. In this regard, we were satisfied to note that last year mutual trade turnover went up by 21% exceeding $9bn, and gained another 20% in seven months of this year. If we continue at this pace, not only will we meet the targets but we’ll reach them earlier than expected and (we will) continue onward," he emphasized.
Russia remains one of Belarus’s main export markets and mutual trade between Moscow and Minsk could reach $50bn , Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 12. "We are able to bring mutual trade to the $50bn level," he said. "To compare, I just visited India with population of 1.1bn people, whose trade turnover with Russia is roughly $10bn," Putin added. For comparison, Russia’s trade with China is likely to top $100bn this year, whereas its trade with Ukraine has fallen to about $11bn. According to President, the Russian-Belarusian trade turnover increased almost by one quarter to $32.4bn last year, and gained another 14.5% in January-August period of 2018. "Russian investment into Belarus has exceeded $4bn, while Belarusian investment was $716.8mn," he added.
43 RUSSIA Country Report November 2018 www.intellinews.com