Page 8 - TURKRptFeb22

At end-2021, annual CPI inflation in the US reached 7%, up from 1.4% in January 2021.
Note that more than $2 trillion have already been printed. It presently resides on the Fed’s balance sheet under the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the Reverse Repo (RRP) account. When the Fed zeroes its net money printing volume, this money will continue flowing into the system.
Amid the upcoming Fed tightening, the US Congress continues to chew over the Biden administration’s expenditure packages. Discussions over the tax hike plans continue. The Biden administration remains weak when it comes to managing a fiscal boom.
The plan is to pump money via fiscal policy instead of monetary policy. However, there is growing and visible inflation now; it was previously ‘stored’ in the form of financial asset price bubbles during the longer-than-a-decade money printing superboom.
Via fiscal or monetary policy, the money printing must proceed; no-one can contemplate stopping it until inflation is totally out of control.
● Virus: Omicron is breaking records but no one cares. It is said that it has a distinctly lower death rate than Delta, partially thanks to vaccination.
Under normal conditions, the winter of 2021-2022 should be the last winter of the pandemic. However, don’t bet the farm on it. Take into account that by the end of 2022, we could be watching the development of yet another deadly variant.
● Halkbank (HALKB) case: On January 14, the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan granted permission to Halkbank to appeal against the legitimacy of the case. The federal government's prosecution will remain on hold while the bank appeals to the US Supreme Court.
The Erdogan regime takes any chance it can to slow the process while the US uses the case as a Sword of Damocles.
The US is also chasing ‘SBK’, a Turkish “businessman” currently under arrest in Austria.
On January 17, the Austrian court also accepted the US request for extradition after accepting Turkey’s request in the summer.
The Austrian government will decide now who will get SBK.
● Erdogan has managed to get his claws into a “transactional” partnership with Joe Biden. He took over the Kabul Airport mission in Afghanistan. The question is how he can fulfil such a mission in such a hellish situation.
The Biden administration has somewhat backed the Erdogan regime to now but Erdogan wants more photoshoots. Such are Erdogan’s growing difficulties, though, that Biden’s tentative support may not be enough.
8 TURKEY Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com