Page 9 - TURKRptFeb22

● Afghanistan: Turkey may be engaged in a hellish conflict scenario at any moment as its personnel (only civilians) at Kabul airport are open targets. It is said that Turkish military personnel are waiting in Pakistan to come to the rescue in case of an emergency.
● DONE: Olaf Scholz of SDP became Germany’s new chancellor under a coalition of the Social Democrat Party (SDP), Greens and FDP (neoliberal).
● Erdogan is still pushing his luck too much.
On February 3, official CPI inflation for January was released at 49% (not 50%).
End-2021: 36% y/y.
Official producer price inflation was released at 94% y/y (not
three-digit) for January. End-2021: 80% y/y.
The ENAG research group inflation figure came at 115% y/y for January. End-2021: 83% y/y.
Currently, the market and the central bank see official CPI inflation peaking at around 55% y/y in May (their forecast reckons without the Turkish lira crashing again).
● Jan 27: The central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 23% from the previous figure of 12% given in the October inflation report.
The upper limit on the official inflation forecast was also moved up, taking the expectation to 28% from 14%.
Turkey’s central bank currently serves as a lira printing house and an accounting department of the palace administration. Turkey’s monetary policy is absolutely inefficient, it makes no sense at all. The central bank has no impact on monetary policy.
● April 28: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● March 3: Official inflation for February.
9 TURKEY Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com